Recession Fears in Germany as Rate Rises Loom

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at the odds of a recession in Germany, a warning from nongovernmental organizations in Venezuela, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to the Middle East.

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Data released Monday showed that Germany’s economy shrank unexpectedly in the fourth quarter. This renewed fears that Germany will enter a recession, though not as deep a recession as some initially thought.

The German Federal Statistical Office said the GDP of Europe’s largest economy decreased 0.2 percent quarter on quarter in adjusted terms. As a recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction and many economists expect Germany’s economy to shrink in the first quarter of 2023, many people now believe a recession is coming.

Sweden’s economy also contracted in the fourth quarter by 0.6 percent while Belgium’s grew by 0.1 percent.

The European Central Bank is expected to raise its key interest rate by half a percentage point this week—up to 2.5 percent—to rein in inflation. European Union-harmonized inflation decreased for a second month in a row in December 2022 but is expected to rise again this month. The Bank of England is also expected to raise its key interest rate by 0.5 percent while the U.S. Federal Reserve may turn to a quarter-point increase.

Venezuelan NGOs fear impact of new legislation. Nongovernmental organizations have warned that the approval of a new piece of legislation will be a death knell for Venezuelan civil society. The bill, now on its second reading, would require NGOs to provide the government with all their financial records so that their political agendas can be examined. Those NGOs determined to be involved in political activity would be banned. A leading human rights group known as PROVEA was already singled out while the bill was being proposed. Some people believe the bill is being proposed now because protests against the government have been renewed in the face of hyperinflation.

Blinken’s Middle East trip. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has begun a trip to Israel, the West Bank, and Egypt. Blinken’s visit comes after a violent week in the region. Last week, Israeli forces killed nine people during a raid; although many people killed were reportedly gunmen, one person was a 61-year-old woman. On Friday, seven Israelis were shot and killed outside a synagogue in East Jerusalem.

Blinken, speaking at a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, said: “We’re urging all sides now to take urgent steps to restore calm, to de-escalate. We want to make sure that there’s an environment in which we can, I hope at some point, create conditions where we can start to restore a sense of security for Israelis and Palestinians alike, which of course is sorely lacking.”

Blinken also reiterated that the United States supports a two-state solution. But regardless of stated U.S. policy preferences, support for a two-state solution in the region is at a historic low, with two-thirds of Palestinians and 53 percent of Israeli Jews opposed. Blinken is set to meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday.

Tourist Bolsonaro? Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has applied for a six-month tourist visa to stay in the United States. He originally traveled to the United States—specifically to Florida—on an A-1 visa for diplomats and heads of state, which expires after 30 days. His lawyer, Felipe Alexandre, said he would “like to take some time off.” Bolsonaro, whose supporters stormed government buildings on Jan. 8, is under investigation in Brazil.

Boris Johnson’s Putin recollection. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened the United Kingdom with a missile strike. Johnson said the conversation happened in the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Johnson was trying to dissuade Putin from going to war.

He said Putin added that sending such a missile to the United Kingdom “would only take a minute.” Johnson said Putin was “very familiar” during the call. There was no reference to this threat during the official readout of the call released by No. 10 Downing St. at the time. Johnson’s claim came to light in a documentary about Putin’s interactions with world leaders through the years. The Kremlin has said this is “a lie.”

• So You Want to Buy an Ambassadorship by Robbie Gramer

• Europe Doesn’t Need the United States Anymore by Rajan Menon and Daniel R. DePetris

• Why Crimea Is Not a Bridge Too Far by Michael Allen

A tiger that was roaming a residential area of Johannesburg was successfully sedated and captured by animal welfare on Monday. Although the country is home to many big cats living in the wild—namely lions, leopards, and cheetahs—tigers are not a native species.

Authorities believe the tiger was an escaped pet, meaning someone was keeping it at home and lost it. This was the second report of a tiger on the loose in South Africa in two weeks. Animal welfare groups have been calling on the government to ban the keeping of wild animals as pets.