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A Report Card on the War in Ukraine

If year two of the war were a carbon copy of the first, Russia would control almost one-third of Ukraine next February.

By , a professor of government at the Harvard Kennedy School.
A person in military uniform is seen from the back, holding a door open in daylight.
A person in military uniform is seen from the back, holding a door open in daylight.
A member of Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service holds a door in Bakhmut, Ukraine, on Feb. 16. Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images

Russia’s War in Ukraine

By now, it is clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has been a grave strategic error. As Napoleon Bonaparte’s former minister of police said of the French leader’s foolish execution of a rival duke, his actions could be described as “worse than a crime … a blunder.” Yet even as Putin’s war has undermined Russia on the geopolitical stage, we should not overlook the fact that Russia has succeeded in severely weakening Ukraine on the ground.

Graham Allison is a professor of government at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he was the founding dean. He is a former U.S. assistant defense secretary and the author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Twitter: @GrahamTAllison

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