After a Year of War, Ukraine and Russia Remain Determined

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at Ukraine marking one year of war, Russian allegations regarding Moldova’s separatist region, and Canadian charges of Chinese surveillance in the Arctic.

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Russia, which insisted it was only engaging in a “special operation,” has been at war with Ukraine for a year.

The Kremlin reportedly expected Kyiv to fall in three days. A year later, Kyiv is still in Ukrainian hands. The United Nations’ member states voted overwhelmingly to support a nonbinding resolution calling on Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, China, a key Russian ally, has presented what it calls a peace plan, encouraging a cease-fire and negotiations. Although most Western countries have dismissed Beijing’s plan as a nonstarter, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed some openness to Chinese mediation: “We’ll draw some conclusions after we see the specifics of what they offer. … We would like to have a meeting with China,” he said.

Despite widespread support for Ukraine in the West and Kyiv’s battlefield successes, Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, notes in Foreign Policy that Russian troops have captured an additional 11 percent of Ukrainian territory since this time last year. Ukraine’s economy and energy infrastructure are both worse off than they were a year ago.

“Thus, as the Western press continues to highlight Ukraine’s successes, we should also recognize that if year two of the war were essentially a carbon copy of the first, in February 2024 Russia would control almost one-third of Ukraine,” Allison added. And that is to say nothing of the Ukrainian casualties—civilian and military. There have been thousands of Ukrainian civilians killed in the war and very few Russian civilians. According to Allison’s report card, Ukrainian and Russian military casualties are comparable.

Still, Ukraine remains as determined as ever to win. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rallied not only domestic but also international support, most recently demonstrated in a wartime visit from U.S. President Joe Biden (who promised that more aid was imminent).

As FP columnist Anchal Vohra writes, Ukraine means not only to defend its territory but to take back Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. Ukraine also appears to be taking seriously the principles for which it is fighting in theory. Corruption scandals this year, after being reported, actually led to decisive government action.

But, as FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal discussed in his conversation with experts Angela Stent and Michael Kofman, Russian President Vladimir Putin still believes Russia will win. The year is over. The war continues.

Moldova dismisses Russia’s Transnistria invasion claim. Moldova has dismissed an allegation made by Russia’s defense ministry that Ukraine planned to invade Transnistria, Moldova’s separatist region. Russia said this constituted a “direct threat” to Russian troops. “The armed forces of the Russian Federation will adequately respond to the impending provocation of the Ukrainian side,” Russia’s defense ministry said in a statement. The Moldovan government denied this, saying, “Our institutions cooperate with foreign partners and in the case of threats to the country, the public will be promptly informed.”

Canada says it tracked Chinese surveillance in Arctic. Canada’s military said it found evidence of Chinese surveillance activity in the Arctic. This discovery comes shortly after the United States shot down what it says was a Chinese spy balloon. China has also been accused of Canadian election interference. This week, Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly said she increasingly sees China as a disruptive power.

China cracks down on ChatGPT. Chinese regulators are reportedly cutting access to ChatGPT, a discussion bot made by OpenAI, which is based in the United States. Although it was not officially available in China, some developers made programs through which users could get access. But those programs “disappeared” from WeChat accounts, and there are reports that WeChat’s parent company was ordered to cut access. Domestic Chinese developers are moving ahead with their own artificial intelligence bots.

• ‘Putin Still Believes Russia Will Prevail’ by Ravi Agrawal

• A Report Card on the War in Ukraine by Graham Allison

• Ukraine Is Serious About Taking Back Crimea by Anchal Vohra

Olive coffee. Starbucks has launched a line of olive oil-infused drinks in Italy, where it has about 20 stores. The chain has famously failed to catch on in a country that takes its coffee very seriously. As Forbes acidly observed in 2018, “Starbucks makes drinks the color of unicorns and zombies. Italy does not.”

Now Starbucks is piloting the trademarked Oleato range in Milan; it features, among other things, a latte with olive oil steamed with oat milk and a cold brew with a “a silky infusion of Partanna extra virgin olive oil with vanilla sweet cream foam, which slowly cascades through the beverage.”

The olive oil drinks are also expected to hit stores in the United Kingdom, Japan, the Middle East, and southern California.