Finland Likely to Join NATO Before Sweden

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at Sweden’s admission that Finland is likely to join NATO first, a Russian jet forcing down a U.S. drone over the Black Sea, and a crackdown on LGBTQ rights in Uganda.

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Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson admitted on Tuesday at a news conference that, due to Turkish opposition to Sweden’s bid to join NATO, Finland, its neighbor, is likely to join the alliance before Sweden does.

Although the two countries vowed to join “hand in hand” last year, Kristersson acknowledged Tuesday that “it’s not out of the question that Sweden and Finland will be ratified in different stages.”

Every existing NATO member must approve of a new member, and Turkey—under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is up for reelection this May—claims that Sweden is too lenient on groups and individuals that Ankara deems to be a threat, notably including Kurdish groups.

There is a Kurdish diaspora of roughly 100,000 people in Sweden. (Finland’s Kurdish population is closer to 15,000 people.) 

“Basically, this is not about whether Sweden becomes a NATO member,” Kristersson said, “but about when Sweden becomes a NATO member.”

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Russian jet forces down U.S. drone. The U.S. military said a Russian fighter jet forced down a U.S. drone over the Black Sea after damaging its propeller. 

In a call with reporters today, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said, “This is not an uncommon occurrence. And there have been even, in just recent weeks, there have been other intercepts. But this one obviously is noteworthy because of how unsafe and unprofessional it was, indeed reckless that it was, in causing the downing of one of our aircraft, so it’s unique in that regard.”

“This MQ-9 [drone] was operating in international airspace over international waters and posed a threat to nobody,” Kirby added. “It was an unsafe and unprofessional intercept. It is not the first time, certainly in recent weeks, that there’s been an intercept. It is the first time that an intercept resulted in the ‘splashing’ of one of our drones.”

He reiterated that the United States would not be deterred from operating in international airspace over the Black Sea. “We are going to continue to fly and operate in international airspace over international waters,” he said. “The Black Sea belongs to no one nation.”

Kirby noted that the United States has been flying over that airspace since before the war began and consistently since then. 

Crackdown on LGBTQ groups in Uganda. LGBTQ people in Uganda have been subjected to an increase in attacks this year. More than 110 people reported incidents, some of which include sexual violence, to Sexual Minorities Uganda (SMUG), in February alone. Frank Mugisha, SMUG’s director, told the Guardian, “We haven’t seen anything like this in years.” Just days ago, Ugandan parliamentarians reintroduced legislation that would punish gay sex as well as the “promotion” of same-sex “activities.” 

China slams AUKUS submarine deal. After the latest announcement of a deal regarding nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia—the three participants in the AUKUS defense pact—China accused the three nations of heading down a “path of error and danger.”

The deal equips Australia with nuclear-powered submarines to counter an ascendant China in the Indo-Pacific. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said, “The latest joint statement from the U.S., U.K., and Australia demonstrates that the three countries, for the sake of their own geopolitical interests, completely disregard the concerns of the international communities.” 

China to reopen borders to foreign tourists. After three years of restrictions, China is fully reopening its borders to foreign tourists and other visitors. The announcement comes as China looks to boost its economy and a month after declaring a “major and decisive victory” against the pandemic. Holders of multiyear visas from before March 28, 2020—when borders closed as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic that began in Wuhan, China—will still be able to use them so long as they have not expired.

Waste piles up in Paris. Waste collectors in Paris have been on strike for a week, and trash is piling up. They are protesting the French government’s proposed pension reform change, under which workers would have to retire at age 64 instead of age 62. Other cities, including Nantes and Rennes, have also been impacted. Additionally, three waste treatment sites have been blockaded while a fourth is partially closed.

• Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War by David V. Gioe

• Ethiopia Is Not Ready for Transitional Justice by Seifudein Adem and Abadir M. Ibrahim

• How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests by Michael McFaul and Abbas Milani

End of the show. A Japanese member of parliament, who is also a YouTuber, has been expelled for never actually turning up to work. Yoshikazu Higashitani, known as GaaSyy on YouTube, where he posts celebrity gossip videos, was elected in July and has not shown up to a single session of parliament since, so his colleagues kicked him out.

FP’s Amy Mackinnon contributed to this edition of Morning Brief.