Leaked Ukraine War Plans Complicate Spring Counteroffensive

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at leaked Ukraine war documents, U.S. finger-pointing over the Afghan withdrawal, and Israel’s latest strikes in Lebanon.

Classified war documents on U.S. and NATO efforts to support Ukraine’s military ahead of a planned spring counteroffensive were posted to social media this week. The leaked documents, at least one of which is labeled “Top Secret,” reportedly include maps of Ukraine as well as information on troop and battalion strengths, anticipated weapons deliveries, and casualty numbers. The material, which is dated March 1, does not include detailed battle plans but does provide a glimpse into the Ukrainian military’s status as of five weeks ago. The documents, which seem to have appeared on the internet as early as March 1 and 2, were later posted to Twitter and Telegram.

Later on Friday, another trove of classified information was published on 4chan, an online anonymous message board. More than 100 pages were posted, which included sensitive U.S. briefing slides on topics like China, Indo-Pacific military issues, the Middle East, and terrorism, according to the New York Times. One slide was labeled “Secret/No Forn,” meaning not to be shared with foreign governments. A senior intelligence official who spoke to the Times called this leak a “nightmare for the Five Eyes” intelligence alliance, which is composed of the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.

As of now, it’s unclear who published any of the classified information and why, though the U.S. Defense Department has launched an investigation. Pentagon officials have acknowledged that they are legitimate Defense Department documents; however, some of the content seems to have been altered to inflate Ukraine’s casualty numbers. U.S. defense officials indicate this may be part of a push to further Moscow’s disinformation efforts; pro-Russian online accounts have actively publicized the documents since their release. “As many of these were pictures of documents, it appears that it was a deliberate leak done by someone that wished to damage the Ukraine, U.S., and NATO efforts,” Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official, told the Times.

Although neither sets of released papers seem to provide specific details such as when and where the anticipated Ukrainian military offensive will occur, they do provide important intelligence about the timing of weapons and troop deliveries as well as the progress of troop buildups—both things that could potentially provide Moscow with a tactical advantage. Some military analysts predict the spring strike will focus on Russian-occupied territory in southeastern Ukraine, but according to Ukrainian national security chief Oleksiy Danilov, no more than five people know when and where the spring strike will take place.

As for best strategies, retired U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis thinks Ukraine’s military should “drive to the Black Sea and split the Russians” on two flanks, coming up behind them. Speaking on FP Live on Thursday, the former NATO supreme allied commander said such an effort would “complicate their ability to manage logistics.” For more from Stavridis, including why he thinks Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to use nuclear weapons and why Washington should go all-in on supporting Kyiv, watch, read, or listen to the interview here.

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U.S. finger-pointing. The Biden administration isn’t done defending its withdrawal from Afghanistan. On Thursday, U.S. President Joe Biden released a summary of classified reports from internal Pentagon and State Department reviews of how U.S. troops left Kabul in August 2021. It concluded that former President Donald Trump was largely to blame for the chaotic situation due to his failure to plan for the U.S. military pullout that his administration negotiated with the Taliban. Democratic officials admit in the report that the U.S. withdrawal should have begun sooner, while Republicans are demanding their own investigation into the calamitous Afghan retreat.

Israel hits Lebanon. Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Gaza on Friday, hitting 10 targets, including tunnels and weapons development sites used by Hamas, according to the Israel Defense Forces. Israel cited the 34 missiles launched from Lebanon on Thursday—of which 25 were intercepted by Israel’s air defense system—as its reason for the airstrikes. No deaths were reported. Israel continues to blame terrorist group Hamas for the earlier assault, while Arab leaders warn Israel of consequences for pursuing further attacks. Hostilities initially escalated after Israeli police raided Al-Aqsa Mosque twice on Wednesday, injuring at least 12 Palestinians and arresting hundreds of people at the third-holiest site in Islam.

Farming clashes in Nigeria. At least 46 people were killed on Wednesday in Umogidi, Nigeria, during clashes between herders and farmers. The rural community has been the site of numerous attacks by nomads in the last month. Although motives remain unclear, Benue has been one of the hardest-hit states in Nigeria for disputes over farmland destroyed by grazing cattle. Locals fear more conflict over land and resources is still to come.

On Wednesday, Indian opposition parties condemned the removal of references from some schoolbooks to which late national leader’s pursuit of Hindu-Muslim unity?

A. Former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru
B. Anti-colonial activist Mahatma Gandhi
C. Former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi
D. Former President Rajendra Prasad

French cabinet minister Marlène Schiappa posed for the cover of Playboy’s France edition, published on Thursday, to discuss LGBTQ and women’s rights. Despite being fully clothed in the photoshoot, some of her political opponents criticized her choice of publication, saying it was not appropriate—especially given France’s current social unrest.

B. Anti-colonial activist Mahatma Gandhi

The Indian government’s recent efforts to build up a Hindu-nationalist state have also fed the growing legend of a fugitive Sikh separatist, FP’s Anchal Vohra writes.

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