Are China’s Taiwan Drills Losing Their Fear Factor?

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at China’s war drills, the fallout of the U.S. intelligence leak, and Saudi-Houthi negotiations.

Monday marked the last day of China’s 72-hour military exercises near Taiwan, which were held in response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California last week. The so-called Joint Sword drills included 12 warships and 91 fighter jets, heavy bombers, reconnaissance planes, and other aircraft—54 of which crossed the Taiwan Strait’s unofficial median line, according to Taiwan’s defense ministry. China also deployed an aircraft carrier near the island and simulated warplane strikes that carried live ammunition.

In response, Taipei reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening the island’s combat readiness amid Chinese threats of invasion. But Beijing’s latest chest-puffing measures may have had less of an impact than Chinese President Xi Jinping would have liked. When China held similar military exercises near Taiwan in August 2022 after then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, it disrupted shipping and flights in the Taiwan Strait. This time, though, traffic—including civilian flights—largely continued as normal. Taiwan’s stock market also seemed unfazed.

That could simply be because, as one Taiwan resident said, “Everyone thinks that China will certainly not start a war.” Or it could be that the more China engages in these drills, the less dramatic they start to seem. “To maintain the same fear factor, [China will] have to ramp it up bigger and bigger each time, as their actions will have a normalizing effect after a while,” Chong Ja Ian, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie China, told the BBC.

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Monday, April 10: Kazuo Ueda begins his governorship of the Bank of Japan.

Investors and policymakers meet in Washington for a week of World Bank and International Monetary Fund spring meetings.

Tuesday, April 11: The United States and the Philippines begin their 18-day Balikatan bilateral military exercise, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin host 2+2 talks with their Philippine counterparts.

Tuesday, April 11, to Friday, April 14: U.S. President Joe Biden travels to Northern Ireland and Ireland to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.

Wednesday, April 12, to Thursday, April 13: G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet.

Thursday, April 13: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva flies to China for a two-day visit, while European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell begins a three-day trip to China.

Saturday, April 15, to Tuesday, April 18: G-7 ministers hold climate and energy meetings as well as foreign-policy discussions in Japan.

The Pentagon’s intel fumbles. Last week’s intelligence leaks have U.S. defense officials scrambling to contain the fallout. Highly classified Pentagon documents dating back to at least March 1 were found posted online, detailing everything from U.S. actions to penetrate Russia’s defense ministry and paramilitary Wagner Group to weaknesses in Ukraine’s military to Washington’s intelligence-gathering efforts on allies such as South Korea and Israel—and even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself. “Experts have described the leaks as potentially the most damaging U.S. national security disclosure since Edward Snowden,” FP’s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer report.

Although some countries, such as South Korea, seem to be taking the leaks in stride, others have expressed deep concern—particularly U.S. partners in the so-called Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance, which includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. One source close to Zelensky told CNN that Kyiv had already altered some of its military plans because of the leak.

Yemen’s peace prospects. The world’s worst humanitarian crisis may have glimpsed hope for the first time in almost a decade. Saudi and Houthi officials met in Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, this weekend to discuss peace talks for the nine-year war. Oman mediated the discussion. The talks centered on reopening Houthi-controlled ports and Sanaa’s airport, rebuilding infrastructure, and establishing a timeline for foreign forces to exit the region, among other issues. This break in tensions comes after China successfully negotiated a reopening of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the latter of which supports the Houthis.

Unrest in Ethiopia. The northern Amhara region of Ethiopia faced its fifth day of protests over federal government efforts to dissolve regional militias. At least four people died in the clashes. Each of Ethiopia’s nine regions has its own special unit to protect its borders and fight rebels. Specifically, Amhara’s paramilitary force helped fight Tigrayan rebels during their two-year battle against the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. However, government officials announced last week that they want to integrate the regional units into the federal army or police to promote national unity. Locals in Amhara fear this will prevent the region from acquiring arms to resist potential Tigrayan threats in the future.

Brits are getting a new king—and a new custom emoji to mark the occasion. To celebrate King Charles III’s coronation on May 6, a mini St. Edward’s Crown will be available for posting on Twitter, according to Buckingham Palace. Because nothing says royalty like a religious service, two processions, and a teeny tiny piece of electronic jewelry.