Gruesome Videos Put Russia’s Brutality Back in the Spotlight

Welcome back to World Brief, where Russia faces new accusations of war crimes in Ukraine, South Korea and Nigeria are targeted by U.S. intelligence, and Brazil negotiates for greater Chinese investment.

Russia is facing new accusations of war crimes in Ukraine after two videos emerged online in the past week of what appear to be Russian soldiers beheading Ukrainian prisoners of war. The first video, which initially circulated on Russian Telegram channels, seems to show a Russian soldier using a knife to decapitate a still-alive man in a Ukrainian military uniform as a group of Russian soldiers look on. In another video of what seems to be a separate event, footage purportedly taken by Russian mercenaries with the paramilitary Wagner Group shows the beheaded bodies of two Ukrainian soldiers next to a destroyed military vehicle.

On Wednesday, Ukraine opened a war crimes investigation into the first video. What this video shows “is something that no one in the world can ignore: how easily these beasts kill,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video message posted on Telegram. “The execution of a Ukrainian captive, the world must see it. This is a video of Russia as it is.” The European Union and United Nations also denounced the footage. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, speaking to reporters on Wednesday, called the video “terrible” but cast doubt on its authenticity.

Russian forces have a documented history of committing atrocities—against both civilians and prisoners of war—in Ukraine since their February 2022 invasion. The International Criminal Court last month issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin over his unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. Ukrainian troops have also been credibly accused of war crimes, including the killing of captured Russian soldiers, though on a vastly smaller scale than Russian forces. Importantly, Ukraine’s government has opened investigations into alleged incidents by its own forces. The Kremlin, by contrast, has lavished praise on its war fighters for their actions. Most notably, Putin awarded the 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade last April for its fighting in Bucha, Ukraine, where mass graves of massacred civilians were discovered after Russian forces withdrew from the city.

Moscow has struggled to recruit—let alone properly train—enough men to replenish troop levels as its own death toll rises, with the Kremlin resorting to increasingly desperate conscription measures. Bracing for Ukraine’s looming spring counteroffensive, Russia’s Federal Assembly approved a bill this week that allows draft summonses to be sent electronically and prohibits anyone called to fight from leaving the country. Putin is expected to sign the legislation into law. Previously, these military notices were required to be delivered in person—allowing many Russians to dodge the draft by avoiding their listed addresses. But with the new bill, a draft notice begins not when an individual receives the summons but rather when it is sent online.

• Crimea Has Become a Frankenstein’s Monster by Anatol Lieven

• Ukraine’s Leopard Tank Crews Are Trained and Ready to Fight by Elisabeth Braw

• Casualties Won’t Topple Putin by Timothy Frye

More leak drama. U.S. officials are struggling to curb global diplomatic backlash after discovering last week that more than 100 documents containing classified U.S. intelligence were circulating on social media. South Korean opposition lawmakers are accusing Washington of violating their country’s sovereignty after the intelligence leak showed alleged evidence of U.S. spying on Seoul. Documents also revealed that Washington had allegedly intercepted high-level internal communications among senior officials in Nigeria’s domestic intelligence agency on security issues related to the country’s February election.

But the United States isn’t the only country in hot water over the intel breach. Egypt has denied a leaked U.S. intelligence report dated from February saying Cairo planned to secretly develop 40,000 rockets for Russia. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Washington has no evidence of Egypt providing these arms and continues to see Cairo as a “significant security partner.”

Lula-Xi face time. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva flew to Beijing on Tuesday to discuss issues including trade, industrialization, and energy with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two-day summit is expected to result in at least 20 signed bilateral agreements, according to Brazil’s government. China is Brazil’s largest trading partner, and Chinese Belt and Road Initiative investments have skyrocketed in Latin America over the past few years. Lula also plans to encourage Xi to negotiate a Russia-Ukraine peace deal in person, FP’s Catherine Osborn reported in last week’s Latin America Brief. Brazil has infuriated many Western nations for its middle-of-the-road approach to the war.

South Africa’s near-frozen economy. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund released a report predicting the sharpest global economic slowdown in decades. Real GDP growth is forecasted to be only 2.8 percent in 2023 and 3 percent in 2024. But one country in particular is facing a rough future. Real GDP growth in South Africa is expected to slow to just 0.1 percent in 2023—far below the 3.6 percent average predicted for sub-Saharan Africa. Despite being the continent’s most industrialized nation, economists say South Africa has a 45 percent chance of facing a recession this year. According to South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, electricity supply constraints and other ongoing energy crises are some of the direst threats to the country’s economy.

Archaeologists in Mexico are celebrating a rare find. A roughly 1,200-year-old circular stone with a complete hieroglyphic text carved into its face was discovered at Chichén Itzá, an ancient Maya city, Mexico’s National Institute of Anthropology and History announced this week. The stone is believed to have been used as a scoreboard for pelota, a Maya ball game. One goal for Mesoamerica!