Turkey’s Presidential Field Narrows, Boosting Opposition Election Prospects

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at a change in Turkey’s presidential election landscape, Imran Khan’s legal reversal by Pakistan’s top court, and new draft AI legislation in the European Union.

Turkish presidential candidate Muharrem Ince on Thursday announced his withdrawal from Sunday’s presidential election—spurring a voter reshuffle that may give incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cause to worry. “I am doing this for my country,” Ince told reporters. It is unclear why Ince, who for weeks rejected calls to bow out of the race, is abandoning his campaign just days before the vote, but he cited the recent release of an alleged sex video online, which Ince said is a deepfake, as one reason. The 59-year-old former physics teacher has not endorsed another candidate. Local polling data predicts that Ince’s support base will now primarily go to main opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

In 2018, Ince—who at the time was a member of the CHP—lost to Erdogan for the presidency. Ince only garnered 30 percent of the vote. He then split from the CHP in 2021 to form the center-left Homeland Party, and he announced his 2023 presidential candidacy earlier this year in March. At the time, Ince argued that Turkey needed a new ruling government and main opposition party.

CHP members criticized Ince’s split, saying his decision to run would siphon votes away from the six-party Nation Alliance, which remains united behind Kilicdaroglu. A new poll published Thursday and conducted before Ince’s withdrawal placed Ince in last place with just 2.2 percent of public support. Kilicdaroglu polled just ahead of Erdogan, with 49.3 percent of the vote to Erdogan’s 43.7 percent. And Sinan Ogan of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party received 4.8 percent of predicted votes. Now, Kilicdaroglu’s supporters hope Ince’s withdrawal will gift the CHP enough votes to win without going to a runoff. A simple majority is needed to secure the presidency in Turkey; otherwise, a runoff must be held between the two candidates with the most votes.

Erdogan has been in power in Turkey since 2003, but he now faces his toughest political challenge yet—mainly because the far-right landscape he once found popularity in has deteriorated. The “rally-around-the-leader effect” that arose following the failed 2016 coup is “long gone,” argued Middle East expert Gonul Tol and historian Ali Yaycioglu in Foreign Policy. “The wave of nationalism that Erdogan once rode has come back to haunt him.” Opposition candidates have capitalized on Ankara’s dire financial straits, pointing to allegations of corruption and mismanagement that emerged after Turkey’s February earthquake as evidence that the current regime can’t save the nation’s economy.

To read more on Turkey’s upcoming election and what it could mean for the wider region, check out Foreign Policy’s other coverage here.

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Pakistan’s about-face on Khan. Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Thursday ruled that former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s arrest this week by paramilitary forces was unlawful, and it ordered that he be released into the court’s legal protection. Khan was detained in a dramatic arrest on Tuesday while he was at court to face corruption charges. He was indicted on Wednesday for illegally selling state gifts and has since been held in custody in a police guesthouse. Now, although he is no longer officially under arrest, the Supreme Court has ordered Khan to remain at a safe house under police protection to ensure his safety. He is expected to appear before the high court on Friday, where judges will decide whether to formally grant him bail. Khan has continued to deny any wrongdoing.

Protests have erupted across the country for the past two days as supporters of Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party demanded his release. Although most demonstrations were peaceful, some turned violent. At least 10 people have been killed, and the military has arrested thousands more, including at least five PTI leaders. Several regions have since requested military support to control the violence and stop property damage. At the judge’s request on Thursday, Khan called for calm from his supporters.

The EU reins in AI. Two European Union committees agreed on Thursday to new draft legislation regulating artificial intelligence (AI). The draft bill, known as the AI Act, would govern the use of facial recognition, biometric surveillance, and other AI technology. Under the act, AI tech would be classified based on its risk level. Public use of facial recognition software in public spaces and predictive policing tools would be banned, and AI applications like ChatGPT would become more transparent. If passed, the proposed policy would be the world’s first comprehensive legislation of its sort. After two years of negotiations, it now moves to the European Commission to finalize the bill’s details.

Tunisia’s synagogue shooting. Tunisian officials launched an investigation on Wednesday into Tuesday’s deadly shooting at El Ghriba synagogue on the island of Djerba. The synagogue is one of the world’s oldest Jewish temples and one of the most important in Africa. The shooting occurred during a popular pilgrimage to the site, where more than 5,000 people were in attendance. At least six people were killed in the shooting, including two police officers—marking the country’s deadliest attack in years. The shooter’s motive is still unknown, but the synagogue has long been a target of antisemitic attacks.

In response to the shooting, French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to continue fighting antisemitism worldwide. And Tunisian President Kais Saied denounced the attack, calling it “criminal and cowardly.” At the same time, Saied continues to espouse xenophobic remarks, including condoning violence against Black migrants.

The Israeli Tax Authority is cracking down on smuggling—of Fruit Roll-Ups. Just last week, investigators released a report saying 661 pounds of the U.S.-made sweet treat were caught at Ben Gurion Airport during a one week stretch. Officials are blaming TikTok influencers for promoting the snack and causing a spike in demand that has led some enterprising individuals to get into the illicit roll-up market.