Turkey Braces for Runoff Election

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at prospects for Turkey’s runoff election, Sunday’s victory for Thailand’s pro-democracy opposition, and Ukraine’s first successful counterattack in Bakhmut.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has another two weeks to secure another term. Despite initial polls predicting a slim lead for opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Erdogan took 49.5 percent of votes in Sunday’s election versus Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9 percent. As in past elections, diaspora voters favored Erdogan; around 65 percent of Turks voting from Germany cast ballots for the incumbent.

Because neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu received a simple majority of votes, Turkey will head to a runoff election on May 28. Voter turnout in Sunday’s elections hit a high 88.8 percent. The situation after polls closed grew more tense, with different information coming from both parties. Kilicdaroglu accused Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) of interfering in vote counting and reporting results, but Kilicdaroglu hasn’t provided evidence of election tampering. Meanwhile, Erdogan warned the opposition against “usurping the national will” on Twitter.

The biggest factor in securing a majority in the second round and winning the presidency could be the third candidate in Sunday’s race, Sinan Ogan, who represents the far-right Nationalist Movement Party and who is now out of the running. Ogan’s supporters will have to choose between throwing their weight behind Kilicdaroglu, who is backed by a six-party opposition alliance, or the ruling AKP. Ogan said he will only endorse Kilicdaroglu if the opposition leader promises not to accede to demands from the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party; otherwise, he may endorse Erdogan. “There will be another difficult 15 days ahead,” Ogan warned.

If Erdogan wins on May 28, then his time in power will extend into a third decade. In recent weeks, the president campaigned on his independent foreign-policy record and a promise to lower the retirement age. But recently, his rule has been plagued by surging inflation and a cost-of-living crisis. Hours after the initial election results were announced, the Turkish lira hit a nearly two-month low.

Erdogan’s government also faces criticism for its slow response to February’s deadly earthquake in southeastern Turkey, his push to strengthen ties with Russia amid the war in Ukraine, and the AKP’s numerous financial corruption allegations. “Erdogan is unique in that he has both state control and a sizable following that does not want to see him give up power,” Reuben Silverman, a researcher of Turkish politics, argued in Foreign Policy.

• Why Netflix’s ‘Queen Cleopatra’ Has Egypt up in Arms by Sara Khorshid
• For Russians, Reading Is the New Resistance by Andrei Kolesnikov
• The Bid to Dethrone the Dollar by Christina Lu

Tuesday, May 16, to Wednesday, May 17: Chinese envoy Li Hui visits Kyiv.

Council of Europe leaders meet in Reykjavik, Iceland.

Thursday, May 18: The Black Sea Grain Initiative between Russia and Ukraine expires.

Friday, May 19: Saudi Arabia hosts the League of Arab States.

Friday, May 19, to Sunday, May 21: Japan hosts the G-7 summit.

Saturday, May 20, to Monday, May 22: Ecuador is expected to hold an impeachment vote against President Guillermo Lasso.

Sunday, May 21: Greece and East Timor hold parliamentary elections.

Monday, May 22: South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel.

Thailand Moves Forward. In more election news, Thailand’s opposition parties soundly defeated the conservative, military-aligned establishment in a dramatic Sunday election. The progressive Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, garnered a surprising 151 seats, and the liberal populist Pheu Thai Party won 141 seats—which together pushed the opposition far ahead of incumbent Prayuth Chan-ocha’s United Thai Nation Party. Prayuth has been in power since the country’s 2014 military coup.

On Monday, the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties announced they will form a six-party coalition to support Pita as prime minister. The alliance would command 309 seats, 67 seats short of the majority needed to ensure Pita’s win. Both the House of Representatives and Thailand’s Senate vote to confirm the prime minister; senators are currently appointed by the military. Although the six-party coalition could overcome Prayuth’s bid to remain in power, it remains uncertain whether Pita will have the votes.

Move Forward campaigned on a progressive agenda that promised to break up monopolies and reform the monarchy, with its strongest support coming from among Thailand’s youth. “Change is possible if we start today,” Pita said after the win.

Kyiv strikes back. On Monday, the Ukrainian military announced its first successful counterattack against Russian troops in Bakhmut, a town that has been the epicenter of fighting for months. On May 5, Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group announced it would surrender Bakhmut due to weapons and ammunition supply shortages. Since fighting in Bakhmut began last August, thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have died in the town.

Kyiv’s success in Bakhmut comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United Kingdom on Monday, where British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak promised Kyiv a sizable missile and drone package. Reports suggest that G-7 ministers will use this year’s summit in Japan, which begins on Friday, to tighten sanctions against Russia.

U.S. border slowdown. Despite concerns about a surge in immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border, the Biden administration’s termination of Title 42 did not trigger an increase in crossings, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas said on Sunday. Title 42 was instituted by the Trump administration amid the COVID-19 pandemic and allowed the United States to quickly remove immigrants without processing. The White House removed the measure last week but introduced new policies that strengthen consequences for unauthorized crossings.

The new immigration regulations say migrants could face criminal charges if caught, barring them from reentry for five years. According to the law, migrants could be deemed ineligible for asylum in the United States if they traveled through other countries without seeking asylum protections there first. These policies appear to have reduced immigration attempts since last Thursday, Mayorkas said.

Dog owners in Montreal, Canada, are furious after a local dog park posted a sign last week banning dogs from barking, whining, or howling due to neighborhood complaints. Violators could be fined between $500 and $2,000. The sign apparently refers to a rule already codified in the city’s bylaw on the control of domestic animals. But it has caught locals by surprise: “It’s too much. It’s really too much,” one dog owner told CTV News last Friday.