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What to Know Ahead of NATO’s Summit

This is where the alliance might be headed.

An illustration shows the NATO compass logo at the center of expanding echo lines across the world map to indicate the alliance's network of allies and partners.
An illustration shows the NATO compass logo at the center of expanding echo lines across the world map to indicate the alliance's network of allies and partners.
Mark Harris illustration for Foreign Policy

On Tuesday, NATO leaders will convene for their annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Ahead of the meeting, all eyes are on the newly revived alliance and the challenges it faces in the second year of Russia’s war in Ukraine. As FP’s Stefan Theil writes, NATO has gone “back to its roots as a bulwark of the trans-Atlantic West against an expansionist Kremlin.”

On Tuesday, NATO leaders will convene for their annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Ahead of the meeting, all eyes are on the newly revived alliance and the challenges it faces in the second year of Russia’s war in Ukraine. As FP’s Stefan Theil writes, NATO has gone “back to its roots as a bulwark of the trans-Atlantic West against an expansionist Kremlin.”

Will Turkey continue to block Sweden’s accession? Will NATO clear a membership path for Ukraine? And how is the alliance thinking about more distant challenges, including threats from China? We explore these questions and more in the essays below—which serve as a guide of sorts to thinking about what NATO is today and where it might be headed.—Chloe Hadavas


An collage illustration shows map segments with member countries — and possible future members — of NATO. Russian President Vladamir Putin is seen in profile with a tear of Ukraine map to signify the effect of the Russian war on the alliance.
An collage illustration shows map segments with member countries — and possible future members — of NATO. Russian President Vladamir Putin is seen in profile with a tear of Ukraine map to signify the effect of the Russian war on the alliance.

Mark Harris illustration for Foreign Policy

NATO’s Next Decade

Nine thinkers assess the alliance’s future ahead of a historic summit.


A NATO flag is displayed at a ceremony marking Poland's ratification of Finland and Sweden's membership in the bloc, on board the Polish Navy frigate ORP Kosciuszko in Gdynia on July 22, 2022.
A NATO flag is displayed at a ceremony marking Poland's ratification of Finland and Sweden's membership in the bloc, on board the Polish Navy frigate ORP Kosciuszko in Gdynia on July 22, 2022.

A NATO flag is displayed at a ceremony marking Poland’s ratification of Finland and Sweden’s membership in the bloc, on board the Polish Navy frigate ORP Kosciuszko in Gdynia on July 22, 2022.Photo by Mateusz Slodkowski/AFP via Getty Images

Can NATO Finally Make the 2 Percent Stick?

The Vilnius summit will test whether Europe’s wealthiest countries can get serious about defense, Bradley Bowman and Jack Sullivan write.


Finnish military personnel install Finland’s national flag at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
Finnish military personnel install Finland’s national flag at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Finnish military personnel install Finland’s national flag at NATO headquarters in Brussels on April 4.John Thys/AFP via Getty Images

U.S. Elites Agree on NATO Enlargement

A new poll reveals strong support for Sweden’s accession to the security alliance.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (right) shakes hands with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during their joint press conference in Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (right) shakes hands with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during their joint press conference in Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (right) shakes hands with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during their joint press conference in Kyiv on April 20.Pavlo_Bagmut/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Don’t Promise Ukraine NATO Membership Now

Bringing Kyiv into the alliance soon could harden Russia’s resolve, frustrate potential peace efforts, and play into the Kremlin’s propaganda, John R. Deni writes.


Erdogan and Kristersson shake hands in front of a row of flags of their two countries.
Erdogan and Kristersson shake hands in front of a row of flags of their two countries.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) shakes hands with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson during a press conference following their meeting at the presidential palace in Ankara on Nov. 8, 2022.Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

Will Erdogan Finally Ratify Sweden’s NATO Accession? No One Knows.

It is now a waiting game—and that’s how it should be, Sinan Ciddi writes.

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