Russia’s Ruble Hits 16-Month Low

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the Russian ruble’s historic fall, charges of high treason against Niger’s ousted president, and rising death tolls in India and Hawaii.

Russia’s Central Bank announced on Monday that it will convene an emergency meeting on Tuesday after the ruble fell to a 16-month low against the U.S. dollar—indicating that Western sanctions and international isolation over Russia’s war in Ukraine are taking a bite out of the country’s economy. According to new central bank data, the ruble is trading at a rate just above 101 to the U.S. dollar—a value loss of around 30 percent since the year began.

This marks the Kremlin’s weakest currency level since Russia invaded Ukraine more than 18 months ago. Now, only a handful of fiscally stricken nations—such as Turkey, Nigeria, and Argentina—are having a worse monetary year. “The whole world is laughing at us now,” said Vladimir Solovyov, a Russian TV presenter considered Moscow’s top media propagandist.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s economic advisor, Maxim Oreshkin, wrote a column for a state media outlet blaming “loose monetary policy” for the weak currency and worsening inflation. The nation’s central bank furthered his argument, citing Russia’s shrinking trade balance; the country’s account surplus fell 85 percent year on year in the last seven months, shrinking to just $25.2 billion.

Much of that is due to Western sanctions, which have restricted trade revenue, increased costs of imports, and made migrant labor less attractive in Russia during a time when Moscow is battling its worst labor shortage in decades. Still, Russia’s GDP exceeded expectations by growing 4.9 percent in its second quarter, mostly due to consistent oil revenue deals and intense government spending on war production efforts.

To stop inflation from rising further, Russia’s Central Bank raised interest rates last month. And on Thursday, it halted foreign-currency purchases for the rest of the year. But economists maintain that inflation will reach as high as 6.5 percent by the end of 2023.

If the Kremlin does not shore up its currency soon and decrease inflation fears, the nation’s economic crisis could spill into the streets. “It is important for the Central Bank of Russia to understand that until now, unfortunately, the dollar exchange rate is not only an economic indicator, the exchange rate has a significant impact on the social rights of our citizens,” wrote Russian Sen. Andrey Klishas on Telegram.

• Niger’s Coup Is a Turning Point for Africans by Howard W. French
• On the Highway to Climate Hell by Christina Lu and Brawley Benson
• ‘The Taliban Turned All My Ambitions Into Dust’ by Lynne O’Donnell

Tuesday, Aug. 15: Russia’s Central Bank holds an emergency meeting.

Santiago Peña is inaugurated as president of Paraguay.

Wednesday, Aug. 16: Indonesian President Joko Widodo delivers his annual address to parliament.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosts Jordanian King Abdullah II in Washington.

Thailand’s Constitutional Court delivers its judgment on a petition arguing the constitutionality of barring Pita Limjaroenrat from running for prime minister.

Thursday, Aug. 17: Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visits Saudi Arabia.

G-20 health ministers begin a three-day summit in India.

Friday, Aug. 18: U.S. President Joe Biden hosts a trilateral summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol.

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Sunday, Aug. 20: Ecuador holds early presidential and legislative elections.

Guatemala holds a presidential runoff election.

Monday, Aug. 21: U.S. and South Korean forces begin joint military exercises.

High treason. Niger’s military junta charged ousted President Mohamed Bazoum with high treason on Sunday for trying to derail peace negotiation efforts through his exchanges with foreign leaders and international organizations. He was also charged with threatening the country’s internal and external security. If found guilty, Bazoum could face the death penalty.

The announcement came hours after the junta said it was open to dialogue with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Last Thursday, ECOWAS ordered the deployment of a “standby force” to Niger following the coup leaders’ failure to reinstate Bazoum by its Aug. 6 deadline; no such unit has been deployed to the West African country as of yet. What that force might look like, including whether it will have military intervention capabilities, is also still unclear.

Since the West African nation’s coup on July 26, Bazoum and his family have been held captive in the presidential palace, where reports indicate he is running out of food and living without electricity, water, or medical attention. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has since called for his release.

Nature’s wrath. Intense flooding and landslides in northern India over the weekend have killed at least 58 people, local officials announced on Monday. That includes the roughly nine people killed when a Hindu temple collapsed in Shimla, the capital of Himachal Pradesh state. Rescue efforts are still underway as thousands of people are stranded by downed power lines, broken railways, and flooded roads.

Meanwhile, the death toll from Hawaii’s wildfires in Maui reached 96 people on Sunday, days after the historic town of Lahaina was decimated. That count is expected to rise as search efforts continue. Last week’s blaze was the island’s worst natural disaster in history as well as the United States’ deadliest wildfire since 1918. “It’s the kind of extreme weather that we climate scientists have been warning about for decades,” climate scientist Peter Gleick told FP’s Christina Lu and Brawley Benson. “It just now seems to be happening everywhere, all at once.”

The votes are in. Far-right populist Javier Milei won roughly 30 percent of Argentina’s presidential primary vote on Sunday, securing his candidacy for October’s general election. As founder of the Freedom Advances party, Milei—an admirer of former U.S. President Donald Trump—has turned heads for his polarizing views. He has called for abolishing the nation’s central bank, legalizing the sale of human organs, and making it easier to own handguns. He also claims climate change is a lie and that sex education will destroy traditional concepts of family.

Milei’s success surprised many local electoral officials; the main opposition party won 28 percent of the vote, and the ruling Union for the Homeland party only secured 27 percent—underperforming original polling predictions. Yesterday’s win marks “an end to the parasitic, corrupt, and useless political caste that exists in this country,” Milei said. “A different Argentina is impossible with the same people as always.”

Even world leaders get stuck on the tarmac sometimes. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock found herself stranded in the United Arab Emirates on Monday after her flight suffered a technical failure shortly after taking off from Abu Dhabi. Her ETA in Canberra: still uncertain. But even a surprise extra night in the Persian Gulf isn’t enough to ruffle Baerbock’s feathers; just in May, she was forced to spend an extra night in Qatar after her plane’s tire was damaged. Talk about poor travel luck.