Slovakia Is Headed Back to the (Recent) Past

A populist with an anti-American bent may return to government in Slovakia following snap elections this month. After capitalizing on the slow downfall of former Prime Minister Eduard Heger’s center-right coalition government in May, Robert Fico’s leftist Smer party has dominated the national debate, stoking fears of malign Western influence and railing about involvement with the war in Ukraine. It’s a development that’s worrying diplomats in Brussels and Washington, who fear that another Fico-led government could weaken Western support for Kyiv and be a boon for the bloc’s illiberal leaders.

Slovakia, a central European nation of approximately 5.5 million people, is rarely of concern to the world’s power players, but Fico’s politics risks further igniting pro-Russian sentiment in the country. According to a trends report published this summer by GLOBSEC, a Slovak think tank, only 40 percent of respondents believed that Russia was responsible for the war in Ukraine, a figure that trailed even Hungary and Bulgaria. Days after the report was launched, the country’s pro-Western President Zuzana Caputova warned that persistent waves of Russian disinformation could destabilize the landlocked nation.

Fico, who was prime minister from 2006 to 2010 and again from 2012 to 2018, said that if reelected, he would “stop supply of weapons to Ukraine.” He has also decried the European Union as being a “war machine under the influence of the USA,” and been an opponent of the bloc’s sanctions policy, arguing that it affects the Slovak economy, which is dependent on Russian energy. Although critical of NATO and the EU, he is an opponent of withdrawal.

When outlining Smer’s foreign-policy objectives at a press conference in Bratislava, the Slovak capital, in early September, Fico ruffled feathers when he hinted at improved relations with Russia, telling reporters that Moscow “cannot be separated from the world by some tin fence.”

Under Heger, Slovakia was among Ukraine’s staunchest supporters and the second NATO member to answer Kyiv’s call for warplanes to turbocharge the fight against Russia. This spring, the Slovak Defense Ministry fulfilled its promise when it flew its entire fleet of 13 Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets across the border into Ukrainian territory.

However, relations between the caretaker government of Ludovit Odor and Kyiv have deteriorated in recent days after Ukraine filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization following Slovakia’s ban on Ukrainian grain and other food products. Fico called the move the “height of impudence” and chided Ukraine for being a “frivolous partner.”

But despite Fico’s tough talk, analysts believe his bark might be worse than his bite, especially on foreign policy. While domestic issues, such as the rule of law, could see a dramatic U-turn from the past government, Fico will “be more pragmatic than we think,” said Milan Nic, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Nic also argued that Fico will need to deliver something to his supporters on Ukraine, but may not take a position as radical as that of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is Russia’s biggest cheerleader inside the European Union. Comparisons between Orban and Fico have been plentiful in the run-up to the vote, which is scheduled for Sept. 30. Both men started their political careers championing democracy, only to undermine it when in power. But while Orban has tampered with Hungary’s constitution due to his consecutive supermajorities, Fico has had less bandwidth when in office, instead building systems of graft.

“If Fico wins, he will get 20-25 percent—we’re not in a Hungarian-style situation,” Nic said.

One point where Fico and Orban do coincide is a shared hostile view toward a United States led by democrats. Following the murder of Slovak journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kusnirova in 2018, a killing that eventually pushed Fico from power following anti-corruption protests, the strongman accused the billionaire financier George Soros of provoking instability in the country—invoking the same bogeyman who Orban regularly attacks. Since then, from his seat in the opposition, Fico has promoted narratives of malign U.S. influence in Slovakia, repeatedly accusing President Caputova of being a U.S. agent and claiming that the only winner of the war in Ukraine is the West.

Like Orban, Fico is a fan of former U.S. President Donald Trump, promoting his narratives of elitist corruption and warmongering. In fact, the tactics that Smer is using to pull ahead in the polls mirror those being used by Trump as he races for the Republican nomination ahead of next year’s U.S. election.

“Smer and smaller parties like them are fueling the outcasts, people tired of globalization, tired of cruel capitalism,” said Viera Zuborova, a political scientist at the Bratislava Policy Institute. “It’s the same narrative as Trump, moving those who are forgotten and distrustful.”

According to polls, Smer is ahead with 21 percent of the vote, but even if the party pulls through, it will have to work to form a governing coalition. The most likely partners would be Hlas, a Smer offshoot led by Peter Pellegrini, and the Slovak National Party, a group of pro-Russian nationalists. However, if the Slovak National Party fails to cross the parliamentary threshold of 5 percent, an alternative for Smer is the far-right Republika, but that option may be too much even for Hlas.

Things are not much better for the liberals. Although Progressive Slovakia is polling in second place, the party’s pro-Ukraine stance and framing of the election as a vote between the past and the future has failed to clear a path towards an obvious coalition. The center, that is, just isn’t holding.

“There is a group of parties who, a decade ago, would have been considered pro-European, but these days criticize Fico and Smer as well as Progressive Slovakia,” said Erik Lastic, a political scientist at Comenius University in Bratislava.

“The main criticism of the liberals is that they will overhaul Slovak society and introduce a so-called woke agenda—so [their prospective coalition partners] might think it’s better to stick with Fico in the end,” Lastic said.