Argument
An expert’s point of view on a current event.
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A protester holds up a sign depicting U.S. President Donald Trump’s signature hair atop the outline of Greenland during a demonstration near the U.S. Consulate building outside Nuuk, Greenland. Annexing Greenland Would Be a Strategic Catastrophe
Any attempt by the United States to claim the island would quickly spiral out of control.
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George W. Bush proclaims mission accomplished in Iraq Donald Trump Is Channeling George W. Bush
Iraq showed that removing a dictator isn’t the same thing as overcoming a dictatorship.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, both wearing dark suits, walk in front of a line of Chinese soldiers dressed in uniform, sporting rifles. The Real Reason China and Russia Won’t Try a Maduro-Style Raid
U.S. rivals aren’t deterred by norms so much as by the limits of their own militaries.
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A plume of black smoke and orange fire billows from a sprawling midrise building complex. Dark shadows of mountains loom in the distance beneath a dim sky. A large building in the foothills of the mountains is lit up in the colors of the Venezuelan flag—yellow, blue, and red. U.S. Airpower Can’t Run Venezuela
Any attempt to govern the nation’s future will need collaborators on the ground.
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A person wearing a large Trump mask holds a gun in one hand and an oil container in the other. The Political Incoherence of Trump’s Venezuela Gambit
The greatest beneficiaries of his actions may be America’s biggest rivals.
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From right: U.S. President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth monitor U.S. military operations in Venezuela from Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3. Venezuela Might Be Where Trump’s Luck Runs Out
The president keeps threading the needle between the extremely hawkish and dovish factions of his base.
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A mural at the PDVSA headquarters shows men working at Venezuela's oil refineries, in Caracas, on September 13, 2023. Why ‘Taking’ Venezuela’s Oil Hurts U.S. Energy Security
Washington’s long-term interests require a smooth political transition in Caracas, not short-sighted mercantilism.
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Local residents stand next to damaged residential buildings following a Russian air strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Jan. 2. Ukraine’s Fate in 2026 Will Define the International Order
A flimsy peace would legitimize conquest. A durable one could still salvage deterrence.
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U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrive for a New Year’s Eve event at his Mar-a-Lago home on December 31, 2025 in Palm Beach, Florida. New Year’s Resolutions for Global VIPs
Some tailored advice for international elites in 2026.
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About a dozen Palestinians are seen from afar as they walk along a beach in front of a tent city. Destroyed buildings and a few intact midrise structures are visible in the distance. The Middle East Looks Toward a Grim 2026
Simmering conflicts require more attention than can be expected from a mercurial U.S. president.
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An illustration of several geopolitical words including Narcoterrorism, Asylum fatigue, Drone wall, multipolarization, and Persistent Objector. New Geopolitical Words We Learned in 2025
When it’s TACO time, no one wants to be a persistent objector.
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U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he hosts the signing ceremony of a peace deal with Rwandan President Paul Kagame and Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington on Dec. 4, 2025. Trump’s Fake Peace Deals Are Dangerous
Potemkin peace can be a threat all its own.
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Donald Trump stands at a podium in front of Christmas decorations and flags. Trump’s Doctrine Is ‘Make America Small Again’
A hemispheric focus makes little sense for a global economic and military giant.
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U.S. President Donald Trump during a visit to "The People's House: A White House Experience," in Washington, DC, on Aug. 22. Trump’s National Security Strategy Seeks to Make Europe Great Again
Alongside an indictment of the continent sits a sacrosanctity accorded to its civilization.
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Kenyan police officers arrive at Toussaint Louverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on Dec. 8. The Silver Lining of ‘Haiti Fatigue’
The Trump administration’s U.N. resolution reimagines international responses to humanitarian crises.
