Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

How Moscow, Washington, Kyiv, and Brussels are preparing for the possibility of war.

Bill Clinton and Joe Biden  at a meeting of the U.S. Congressional delegation to the NATO summit in Spain on July 7, 1998.

Liberal Illusions Caused the Ukraine Crisis

The greatest tragedy about Russia’s potential invasion is how easily it could have been avoided.

Ukrainian servicemen taking part in the armed conflict with Russia-backed separatists in Donetsk region of the country attend the handover ceremony of military heavy weapons and equipment in Kiev on November 15, 2018.

The West’s Weapons Won’t Make Any Difference to Ukraine

U.S. military equipment wouldn’t realistically help Ukrainians—or intimidate Putin.

White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan gives a press briefing.

Defining the Biden Doctrine

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan sat down with FP to talk about Russia, China, relations with Europe, and year one of the Biden presidency.

What Russia Wants

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds his annual press conference in Moscow.

What’s Behind Russia’s Latest Demands

Moscow has long chafed at Ukraine’s relationship with the West, so why the sudden urgency?

Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov speaks in San Francisco on Nov. 29, 2017.

“The Situation is Extremely Dangerous”

Antonov: “No one should doubt our determination to defend our security.”

A Ukrainian serviceman in Donetsk

Russians Believe Ukrainians Want to Be ‘Liberated’

Delusions about Moscow’s “little brother” are common and dangerous.

The Territorial Defense Forces, the military reserve of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, holding replicas of Kalashnikov rifles, take part in a military exercise near Kyiv on Dec. 25.

How Russia Decides When to Invade

Past attacks suggest Moscow probably won’t move on Ukraine.

Washington’s Moves

U.S. President Joe Biden

‘Don’t Freaking Test Us’: U.S. Sanctions Alleged Intelligence Operatives Undermining Ukraine

It’s part of an effort to shed light on Russia’s orchestrated campaign to destabilize Kyiv—and even take over Ukraine.

A Ukrainian serviceman patrols.

Biden Must Choose Between Appeasement and Deterrence in Ukraine

Russia’s threat on the Ukrainian border is not a bluff, but forceful U.S. financial sanctions could stop Putin from another land grab.

A meeting of the United Nations Security Council

Biden Plans U.N. Showdown if Russia Invades Ukraine

There’s lots of history at the Security Council, but few changes.

A U.S. soldier prepares Ukrainian soldiers for an exercise in ambush tactics at the Yavoriv Combat Training Center in Starychi, Ukraine, on July 26. The advisors from Task Force Raven are working to improve Ukraine's defense capabilities against a potential military threat from Russia.

Biden Is Running Out of Time to Help Ukraine Fend Off Russia

Kyiv’s pleas for more U.S. guns to hold off Moscow have prompted a political knife fight in Washington.

Regional Impact

Erdogan and Putin sit side by side in front of their respective country flags.

Turkey Could Lose Big in the Russia-Ukraine Standoff

Conflict could topple Ankara’s delicate balancing act between NATO and Russia.

Finnish troops wear gas masks in 1939.

What Ukraine Can Learn From Finland

In December 1939, a small country with a small military held off the vastly superior Soviet Red Army and avoided occupation by its larger neighbor.

Soldiers take part in the NATO military exercise "Winter Shield" in Latvia.

Baltic Citizens Worry They’re Next on Russia’s Menu

Moscow’s aggression has stirred old fears in its neighbors.

A Ukrainian soldier patrols at the checkpoint.

The West Must Deter Russia or Accept Defeat

Putin hasn’t set his sights on just Ukraine. Further destabilization of Georgia is next on his agenda.

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Wheat harvest in Ukraine

A Russia-Ukraine War Could Ripple Across Africa and Asia

Beware of food price spikes and revolutions if Ukrainian grain deliveries are disrupted.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron (not pictured) at the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Buenos Aires on Nov. 30, 2018.

A “New Cold War” to Decide the Future of Europe—and the World

Trump’s ambassador to the OSCE says a Russian invasion of Ukraine is an attack on “all of America’s allies.”

A Ukrainian military serviceman waits at his position on the frontline with Russia-backed separatists.

Russia Planning Provocation in Ukraine as Pretext for War

Warnings from U.S. officials come amid a cyberattack on Ukrainian government websites.

Sen. Ted Cruz questions Secretary of State Antony Blinken at a hearing.

Showdown at the Nord Stream Corral

U.S. Senate strikes down sanctions bill on a Russian pipeline project that became a political lightning rod in Washington.

Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko addresses supporters.

Ukraine Can’t Afford Presidential Prosecutions

Going after former leaders is a mistake in a time of crisis.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) shakes hands with U.S President Joe Biden during their meeting at the 'Villa la Grange' in Geneva, Switzerland in Geneva on June 16, 2021.

Biden Set for Putin Call to Ease Ukraine Standoff

The United States is demanding that Russia roll back more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border.

Ukrainian soldiers take part in the Sea Breeze drills at a shooting range in the Kherson region of Ukraine on July 2. Ukraine and the United States launched joint naval exercises in the Black Sea on May 28 in a show of Western cooperation with Kyiv as it faces off with Russia.

Ukraine’s Military Has Come a Long Way Since 2014

But so have Russia’s armed forces—making any conflict more of a toss-up than a walkover.

Representatives of different Ukrainian political parties and movements stage a protest outside the Constitutional Court building in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 30, 2020.

Why Ukraine’s Fight Against Corruption Scares Russia

The country’s democratization and ongoing efforts to fight entrenched graft and cronyism are a threat to Putin’s model of governance.

U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office of the White House, on September 1, 2021, in Washington, DC.

Ukraine Ready to Fight to ‘Last Drop’

But Biden’s talk of accommodating Russia has Congress worried.

Servicemen salute as their tanks move through Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow on May 9, 2021.

Is Russia Preparing to Invade Ukraine?

Moscow’s military buildup is raising eyebrows in Washington as Belarus ups the ante in its standoff with the EU.

A view of the Pipeline Inspection Gauge receiving station, part of Nord Stream 2, in Lubmin, Germany, on Sept. 21.

How to Stop Moscow From Squeezing Ukraine’s Energy Sector

Kyiv and the West can work together to strengthen security.

Ukrainian servicemen take part in the joint Rapid Trident military exercises with the United States and other NATO countries nor far from Lviv on September 24.

Russia Isn’t About to Attack Ukraine

Moscow occupying its neighbor would be expensive, dangerous, and pointless.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech.

U.S. Eyes Russian Military Movement Near Ukraine

Echos of the spring’s equipment movements are seen as tensions escalate between Moscow and Kyiv.