Theory

List of Theory articles

Kissinger stands at a lectern with microphones with a large world map on the wall behind him.
Kissinger stands at a lectern with microphones with a large world map on the wall behind him.

Kissinger’s Great Game

In his worldview, little countries only mattered to the extent that they played into struggles among the mighty.

Henry Kissinger during an interview in Washington in August 1980.
Henry Kissinger during an interview in Washington in August 1980.

Henry Kissinger, Colossus on the World Stage

The late statesman was a master of realpolitik—whom some regarded as a war criminal.

Leader of Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV) Geert Wilders during a meeting of populist far-right party leaders in Wenceslas Square on April 25, 2019 in Prague, Czech Republic.
Leader of Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV) Geert Wilders during a meeting of populist far-right party leaders in Wenceslas Square on April 25, 2019 in Prague, Czech Republic.

What Geert Wilders Wants in Europe

The Dutch far-right leader, and national election winner, plans to stay in the EU—but shape it in his image.

Dutch politician Geert Wilders speaks into a collection of microphones held by members of the media as he speaks to them. Wilders is a middle-aged man with white hair who wears a suit with a red tie. Behind him stand two other men in suits who may be members of a security detail.
Dutch politician Geert Wilders speaks into a collection of microphones held by members of the media as he speaks to them. Wilders is a middle-aged man with white hair who wears a suit with a red tie. Behind him stand two other men in suits who may be members of a security detail.

Populist Rage Gives Dutch Far Right a Worrying Shot at Power

Mainstream parties are reluctant to enter a coalition with extremist Geert Wilders.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping arrive for a meeting in Woodside, California on November 15, 2023.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping arrive for a meeting in Woodside, California on November 15, 2023.

5 Things in the World to Be Thankful for in 2023

It may seem harder to give thanks this year, but it’s not impossible.

Negotiators-S3E10-1080x1080 (1)
Negotiators-S3E10-1080x1080 (1)

The Maestro of Mediation

The Negotiators: William Ury has helped resolve some of the world’s most intractable conflicts. Here’s how he does it.

FP-Podcast-Geopolitics-Business-1500x1000
FP-Podcast-Geopolitics-Business-1500x1000

Shifting Power Blocs: José Manuel Barroso

The Geopolitics of Business: The former president of the European Commission shares his insights from years in politics and business.

Two drawn posters are seen at a market in Beijing: on the right, Chinese President Xi Jinping holds an umbrella; on the left, former Chinese leader Mao Zedong is seen in profile.
Two drawn posters are seen at a market in Beijing: on the right, Chinese President Xi Jinping holds an umbrella; on the left, former Chinese leader Mao Zedong is seen in profile.

The Maoist Roots of Xi’s Economic Dilemma

Beijing needs domestic consumers to spend more, but the Chinese president’s ideology is getting in the way.

Chinese President Xi Jinping waves and leads the way as Premier Li Keqiang claps and trails behind him in front of an ornate wall at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Chinese President Xi Jinping waves and leads the way as Premier Li Keqiang claps and trails behind him in front of an ornate wall at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

Li Keqiang Lived and Died in Xi Jinping’s Shadow

The former Chinese premier was heralded as a reformer, but change never came.

A man waves a Romanian flag next to soldiers from the regimental guard University Square in Bucharest on December 21, 2011.
A man waves a Romanian flag next to soldiers from the regimental guard University Square in Bucharest on December 21, 2011.

Romania Is at a Dangerous Tipping Point

The country is increasingly important to the world—and increasingly unstable.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni rests her chin on her hand as she sits in front of a microphone during a press conference in Rome. Meloni, a woman in her 40s wearing a black suit jacket, frowns slightly as she looks to the side.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni rests her chin on her hand as she sits in front of a microphone during a press conference in Rome. Meloni, a woman in her 40s wearing a black suit jacket, frowns slightly as she looks to the side.

Giorgia Meloni Gets a Reality Check on Immigration

Italy’s populist prime minister vowed to crack down on illegal immigration. Things didn’t work out that way.

Civic Coalition leader Donald Tusk takes the stage during an election rally in Lodz, Poland, on Oct. 10.
Civic Coalition leader Donald Tusk takes the stage during an election rally in Lodz, Poland, on Oct. 10.

There Is No Going Back to Pre-Populist Poland

Many expectations for the new government are wishful thinking or just plain wrong.

An illustration of Imelda Marcos holding a parasol as she lounges on the sand, leaning on skulls, as shoes and palm fronts swirl around her.
An illustration of Imelda Marcos holding a parasol as she lounges on the sand, leaning on skulls, as shoes and palm fronts swirl around her.

The Fabulous Mythmaking of Imelda Marcos

A new novel claws back history from a family that would otherwise have it disappear.

Sumeyye Bayraktar and Selcuk Bayraktar, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s daughter and son-in-law, hold Turkish flags in front of Erdogan’s residence in Kisikli.
Sumeyye Bayraktar and Selcuk Bayraktar, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s daughter and son-in-law, hold Turkish flags in front of Erdogan’s residence in Kisikli.

Is Selcuk Bayraktar Turkey’s Crown Prince-in-Waiting?

Drones made the president’s son-in-law a household name. His techno-nationalism and popular appeal could make him the country’s next leader.

Members of the GIL (Italian Youth of the Lictor) help farmers during the wheat threshing in Italy.
Members of the GIL (Italian Youth of the Lictor) help farmers during the wheat threshing in Italy.

The Great Turn Inward

A new book argues countries are de-globalizing yet again. But was there ever such a thing as globalism to begin with?

Refugees stand in the back of a truck after crossing the border near Kornidzor on Sept. 28. More than 65,000 Armenians have fled Nagorno-Karabakh for Armenia.
Refugees stand in the back of a truck after crossing the border near Kornidzor on Sept. 28. More than 65,000 Armenians have fled Nagorno-Karabakh for Armenia.

What Does Nagorno-Karabakh’s Fall Mean for Great Power Influence?

Washington and Moscow care a lot about some post-Soviet conflicts—but are largely ignoring others.

Hand-painted wooden nesting dolls stand on a table. Two are painted with an image of U.S. President Joe Biden, shown from the torso upward, wearing a black suit and smiling against an American flag background. Next to these is a doll painted with the image of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who smiles against a Chinese flag background.
Hand-painted wooden nesting dolls stand on a table. Two are painted with an image of U.S. President Joe Biden, shown from the torso upward, wearing a black suit and smiling against an American flag background. Next to these is a doll painted with the image of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who smiles against a Chinese flag background.

The U.S. Cannot Afford to Lose a Soft-Power Race With China

Washington’s key diplomatic assets have become a political bargaining chip.

Polish Prime Minister and member of the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) political party Mateusz Morawiecki waves to supporters before speaking at a PiS election rally on the last day of campaigning on October 11, 2019 in Chelm, Poland.
Polish Prime Minister and member of the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) political party Mateusz Morawiecki waves to supporters before speaking at a PiS election rally on the last day of campaigning on October 11, 2019 in Chelm, Poland.

Poland Is Throwing All Its Neighbors Under the Bus

Running for reelection, the Polish government is flailing in every direction to keep its populist credibility.

Iranian students attend a parliament session in Tehran on November 15, 2009.
Iranian students attend a parliament session in Tehran on November 15, 2009.

Iran Is Doubling Down on Headscarves

One year after an uprising over women’s rights, the government has passed a harsh new hijab law.

A group of police officers, wearing short-sleeved uniform shirts and matching hats, chat with each other as they stand on a sidewalk outside Hong Kong's High Court. Skyscrapers and a cloudy sky are visible behind the officers.
A group of police officers, wearing short-sleeved uniform shirts and matching hats, chat with each other as they stand on a sidewalk outside Hong Kong's High Court. Skyscrapers and a cloudy sky are visible behind the officers.

Hong Kong’s Bureaucrats Don’t Make Good Authoritarians

Local officials are inflexible about implementing Beijing’s orders.

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