A gray-haired woman, hair tied back, wearing a brown shirt with polka dots, is seen in front of a Chinese flag in the background.
A gray-haired woman, hair tied back, wearing a brown shirt with polka dots, is seen in front of a Chinese flag in the background.

4 Predictions for China in 2026

What we’re watching in the new year, from women’s rights to AI dangers.

In the foreground, a Chinese flag blows in the wind atop a flagpole. In the background are container ships, cranes, and stacked shipping containers, surrounded by cloudy skies and gray-blue water.
In the foreground, a Chinese flag blows in the wind atop a flagpole. In the background are container ships, cranes, and stacked shipping containers, surrounded by cloudy skies and gray-blue water.

China’s Year of Patience

The trends that defined Beijing’s 2025, from the trade war with Trump to challenges on the home front.

Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops look out from a bus as they arrive at Tiananmen Gate to take part in a military parade in Beijing.
Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops look out from a bus as they arrive at Tiananmen Gate to take part in a military parade in Beijing.

What’s It Like to Be a Chinese Soldier?

Behind the parades, recruits face long deployments, strict rules, and limited opportunities.

U.S. President Donald Trump, center, alongside U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, right, holds a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington.
U.S. President Donald Trump, center, alongside U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, right, holds a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington.

A Bad Week for Washington’s China Hawks

Trump’s overtures to Beijing deal a blow to U.S. hard-liners.

Firefighters are seen following a massive fire at the Wang Fuk Court residential estate in Hong Kong.
Firefighters are seen following a massive fire at the Wang Fuk Court residential estate in Hong Kong.

Deadly Fire Highlights Hong Kong’s Predicament

The tragedy confirmed to many locals that the city’s freedoms have vanished.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, flanked by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, flanked by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea.

Decoding the Trump-Xi Phone Call

The leaders talked trade, Taiwan, and—likely—Japan.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, dressed in a blue blazer with a pearl necklace, stands at a podium in the House of Representatives in Tokyo. She is speaking into multiple microphones while holding an open book of notes. The background features blurred green and red lights, and wooden furnishings are visible behind her.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, dressed in a blue blazer with a pearl necklace, stands at a podium in the House of Representatives in Tokyo. She is speaking into multiple microphones while holding an open book of notes. The background features blurred green and red lights, and wooden furnishings are visible behind her.

China-Japan Rift Deepens Over Taiwan

The new Japanese prime minister is unlikely to back down from recent comments.

About a dozen Mongolians walk on a crosswalk in front of cars waiting for them to pass. The demonstrators hold banners and the Mongolian flag while marching through the streets as pale clouds loom overhead.
About a dozen Mongolians walk on a crosswalk in front of cars waiting for them to pass. The demonstrators hold banners and the Mongolian flag while marching through the streets as pale clouds loom overhead.

China’s Messy History With Mongolia

The countries’ ethnic ties have grown strained in recent years.

Rows of large Chinese military vehicles carrying DF-31BJ intercontinental ballistic missiles are displayed during a parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing, as uniformed soldiers stand nearby and journalists with cameras and microphones record the event.
Rows of large Chinese military vehicles carrying DF-31BJ intercontinental ballistic missiles are displayed during a parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing, as uniformed soldiers stand nearby and journalists with cameras and microphones record the event.

What Are China’s Nuclear Ambitions?

Trump’s testing plans revive scrutiny of Beijing’s growing arsenal.

Donald Trump, wearing a white "USA" hat, a blue suit, and red tie, speaks at a podium in front of US Navy personnel in camo.
Donald Trump, wearing a white "USA" hat, a blue suit, and red tie, speaks at a podium in front of US Navy personnel in camo.

Can Trump and Xi Strike a Deal?

Both sides are sending positive signals ahead of a Thursday meeting, but a temporary truce may be more likely.

A Chinese security guard in a bright yellow uniform stands in the foreground, partially turned to the side, near the entrance of a hotel. The entrance is marked by a large stone gate structure with three red flags flying on top. Security personnel and barriers are visible near the gate, and a black car is passing by on a crosswalk. Tall trees and a building with a radio tower are in the background under a blue sky with scattered clouds.
A Chinese security guard in a bright yellow uniform stands in the foreground, partially turned to the side, near the entrance of a hotel. The entrance is marked by a large stone gate structure with three red flags flying on top. Security personnel and barriers are visible near the gate, and a black car is passing by on a crosswalk. Tall trees and a building with a radio tower are in the background under a blue sky with scattered clouds.

China Announces Military Purge Ahead of Fourth Plenum

It’s the first of many possible personnel changes during this week’s party meeting.

A container ship is seen from directly above, at the port in Qingdao, China. It is heading toward the left of the image and flanked on its right by a smaller vessel. The containers on the main ship look rectangular from this angle and are brightly colored in shades of orange, red, white, and blue. The water beneath the vessels looks like a dark, almost emerald green.
A container ship is seen from directly above, at the port in Qingdao, China. It is heading toward the left of the image and flanked on its right by a smaller vessel. The containers on the main ship look rectangular from this angle and are brightly colored in shades of orange, red, white, and blue. The water beneath the vessels looks like a dark, almost emerald green.

China’s Rare-Earth Flex Sends the United States Scrambling

Beijing’s new export controls take a page from Washington’s playbook.

A woman in a long, brown dress stands in front of a crowd of tourists, her hand stretched above to take a selfie of her group of travelers. Most of the people in the photo are dressed casually, many of them carrying purses and backpacks. They are standing in front of the Shanghai skyline at a popular tourist destination on a partly cloudy day.
A woman in a long, brown dress stands in front of a crowd of tourists, her hand stretched above to take a selfie of her group of travelers. Most of the people in the photo are dressed casually, many of them carrying purses and backpacks. They are standing in front of the Shanghai skyline at a popular tourist destination on a partly cloudy day.

China’s Weak Passports Are Holding Back Its Soft Power

This week’s holiday shows the Chinese public’s immense appetite for travel.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te frowns as he talks with suited representatives from Lockheed Martin. He is wearing a striped tie.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te frowns as he talks with suited representatives from Lockheed Martin. He is wearing a striped tie.

How Taipei Should Handle Washington

There are several options for dealing with the Trump administration.

U.S. Sen. Mark Warner is speaking animatedly from behind a brown podium with a "United States Senate" seal on its front. The room, located in the U.S. Capitol building, has blue carpet and brown, wood-paneled walls, with two U.S. flags standing at the left and right back corners of the frame. To Warner's right is a poster on a stand with "The Restrict Act" in capital letters and a mock-up of an iPhone. Behind Warner are (L-R) Sen. Joe Manchin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Sen. Michael Bennett, Sen. Jerry Moran, and Sen. Mitt Romney, all wearing suits.
U.S. Sen. Mark Warner is speaking animatedly from behind a brown podium with a "United States Senate" seal on its front. The room, located in the U.S. Capitol building, has blue carpet and brown, wood-paneled walls, with two U.S. flags standing at the left and right back corners of the frame. To Warner's right is a poster on a stand with "The Restrict Act" in capital letters and a mock-up of an iPhone. Behind Warner are (L-R) Sen. Joe Manchin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Sen. Michael Bennett, Sen. Jerry Moran, and Sen. Mitt Romney, all wearing suits.

Why China Hawks Love Talking About AI

Artificial intelligence is not the most important part of the U.S.-China technology race, yet it receives the most attention in Washington.

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