Japan’s Ishiba Vows to Stay in Power After Debilitating Election Loss

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at how Japan’s election results could hamper U.S. trade talks, Israeli forces attacking Gaza’s main humanitarian aid hub, and a deadly plane crash in Bangladesh.

Election Defeat

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed on Monday to remain at his post despite his ruling coalition suffering a devastating defeat in upper house elections on Sunday. The center-right leader stressed that he must oversee ongoing tariff talks with the United States and address other pressing issues, such as rising consumer prices. But with the opposition now weighing a potential no-confidence vote against him, Ishiba’s days in office may be numbered.

“While I painfully feel my serious responsibility over the election results, I believe I must also fulfill my responsibility I bear for the country and the people so as not to cause politics to stall or go adrift,” Ishiba said on Monday.

Ahead of this weekend’s election, local polling showed that most voters were prioritizing high inflation and immigration concerns. That translated to unprecedented wins for Ishiba’s opponents. The prime minister’s bloc—consisting of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the allied Komeito party—secured only 47 out of the 50 seats needed to ensure its majority in the 248-seat legislature. Instead, the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan took home second place with 22 seats, and the far-right Sanseito party went from just one seat to 15 spots in total.

This means that Ishiba no longer has easy control over the upper or lower houses of parliament; last October, the LDP lost control of the more powerful lower chamber, marking a major upset for a party that has ruled Japan for most of its post-World War II history.

Ishiba is expected to stick with his coalition partners while also seeking further cooperation with opposition parties to pass his trade plans. This week, Japanese Economic Minister Ryosei Akazawa traveled to Washington for the eighth round of tariff talks, where negotiations are expected to focus on striking a deal to stop the White House’s planned 25 percent tariff on Tokyo before U.S. President Donald Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline comes to pass.

“We are currently engaged in truly down-to-the-wire tariff negotiations with the U.S.,” Ishiba said on Sunday. “I myself have met face-to-face with President Trump twice and spoken with him numerous times on the phone. This is something we mustn’t let go to waste.”

But having now lost control of both the upper and lower houses, Ishiba may struggle to persuade lawmakers to back any trade agreement that he makes with Washington, especially if a deal involves concessions on sensitive industries, such as agriculture, where food prices (such as those on rice) are already at historic highs.

To counteract opposition pushback, experts suspect that Ishiba may be forced to appease far-right demands, such as cutting taxes, slashing welfare spending, and tightening immigration policies. Japan is the most indebted nation in terms of its debt-to-GDP ratio as well as the fourth-largest economy in the world, meaning that any unease from investors in response to these measures could have rippling consequences for the global market.

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The World This Week

Tuesday, July 22: Trump hosts Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at the White House.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hosts Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala in Berlin.

Representatives from China, Iran, and Russia hold nuclear talks in Tehran.

Wednesday, July 23: Merz hosts French President Emmanuel Macron in Berlin.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a two-day visit to the United Kingdom.

Tokyo hosts the European Union-Japan leaders’ summit, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa in attendance.

Thursday, July 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts von der Leyen in Beijing as part of the EU-China summit, which Costa is also attending.

Friday, July 25: Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu hosts Modi for a two-day visit.

Iran holds nuclear talks with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom in Istanbul.

Saturday, July 26: Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang party holds a recall election for 24 lawmakers.

What We’re Following

Attacks on aid hub. Israeli forces launched airstrikes and a ground operation in the central Gaza city of Deir al-Balah on Monday. Deir al-Balah is the main hub for humanitarian efforts in Gaza and one of the last remaining areas in the territory that has not suffered significant war damage since the conflict between Israel and Hamas began in October 2023. The Israeli military claims that Hamas is holding hostages in Deir al-Balah; 50 people remain in the group’s captivity, of whom only around 20 are believed to still be alive.

Attacks on Deir al-Balah follow a weekend of deadly Israeli attacks on Palestinians seeking food, with at least 32 people killed on Saturday and around 85 others killed on Sunday. According to the United Nations’ World Food Program, the majority of those killed on Sunday—one of the deadliest single days for Palestinians seeking aid in 21 months—were gathered near a U.N. aid convoy delivering flour. The Israeli military said that Sunday’s incident began when its troops fired “warning shots” to “remove an immediate threat posed to them.”

Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed while trying to access food in Gaza in recent months. Rights groups and international bodies have accused Israel of weaponizing humanitarian aid by creating a food distribution system that requires people to travel long distances to access a limited supply of aid, even as the territory nears mass starvation.

Training flight tragedy. At least 20 people were killed and more than 170 injured on Monday after a Bangladeshi Air Force training plane crashed into a school facility in the capital city of Dhaka. According to local authorities, the F-7 BGI jet experienced a mechanical failure shortly after taking off from a military base in Kurmitola. Interim Bangladeshi leader Muhammad Yunus said the government is investigating the incident, and he announced a national day of mourning for Tuesday.

The pilot “made a valiant attempt to divert the aircraft away from densely populated areas,” military spokesperson Lt. Col. Sami Ud Dowla Chowdhury said. “Despite his best efforts, the aircraft … crashed into a two-storey building belonging to Milestone School and College.” The pilot was among those killed.

This is the second large-scale aircraft disaster in South Asia in recent weeks. Last month, an Air India plane crashed into a medical college hostel in the Indian city of Ahmedabad, killing at least 270 people in the world’s worst aviation disaster in a decade.

Possible talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Monday that peace talks with Russia are being planned for this week in Turkey. This was the first time that Ukraine has suggested rekindling dialogue since Trump agreed to facilitate the transfer of U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine via their European allies. That, along with the White House’s recent sanctions threat against Moscow, could put Kyiv in a better negotiating position.

Moscow, however, has said it is waiting for an exact date before it commits to negotiations. “There is our draft memorandum,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said. “There is a draft memorandum that has been handed over by the Ukrainian side. There is to be an exchange of views and talks on these two drafts, which are diametrically opposed so far.”

Russia and Ukraine have held two rounds of peace talks in Istanbul this year, both of which resulted in the release of thousands of prisoners. But past negotiations have stopped short of clinching a cease-fire deal, as Russia refuses to part with occupied Ukrainian territory and rejects any proposal that allows Kyiv to join NATO in the future.

Overnight into Monday, Russia launched some 450 missiles and drones into Ukrainian territory. Of those, 23 projectiles as well as falling debris struck targets across three locations, including a kindergarten, residential buildings, and other civilian infrastructure, Zelensky said. The assault killed at least two people and injured around 16 others.

Odds and Ends

Cuba may be having its own Marie Antoinette moment. Last Tuesday, Cuban Labor Minister Marta Elena Feitó resigned for claiming that “in Cuba, there are no beggars,” adding, “We have seen people who appear to be beggars, but when you look at their hands, when you look at the clothes those people wear, they are disguised as beggars.” Cuban citizens were quick to compare Feitó’s comments with memes displaying the words “Let them eat cake”—a mantra falsely associated with ousted Queen Marie Antoinette during the 1790s French Revolution. Within 24 hours of Feitó’s remarks, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel accused her of lacking compassion and announced a 50 percent increase in state pensions starting in September.