Russia’s War in Ukraine

News, analysis, and background on military campaigns, battlefield technology, and global diplomacy, negotiations, and sanctions.

A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.
A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.

Ukraine Is Hitting Russia Where It Hurts: Its Oil Refineries

Kyiv’s two-year offensive against Russian oil facilities has intensified, eating away at Moscow’s energy revenues.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers

Russia’s Next Opposition Will Not Be Liberal

Army corruption and mass death are breeding new dissent—deep inside Vladimir Putin’s loyal core.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.

Ukraine Needs More Drones

Tight cooperation with Beijing and Tehran is giving Moscow an edge on the critical weapons.

Analysis
Sam Skove
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.

Putin vs. the Press

You’d have to be fearless or a fanatic to persist in journalism in Russia. These women are both.

Review
Anastasia Edel
Putin gives an interview
Putin gives an interview

From Moldova to Africa, Russia’s Power Is Waning

The defeat of Moscow-friendly parties in the Moldovan election is just the latest of many setbacks.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky, Alexander J. Motyl
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech

Europe Is on Its Own With Russia Now

Donald Trump’s latest U-turn on Ukraine doesn’t change the naked truth for Europe.

Analysis
Christian Caryl

Battlefield Strategy

A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat
A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat

Why the White House Is Considering Tomahawks for Ukraine

The move makes sense for U.S. strategy, but it may cause heartburn for isolationist and Pacific-focused Pentagon leaders.

Analysis
Sam Skove
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.

The Mood on the Front Line, Three Years On

Ukrainian troops watch with anxiety as the United States moves closer to talks with Russia over the war.

Dispatch
Fabrice Deprez
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.

How Russia Is Escalating the Drone Arms Race

Routine strikes involve smaller, daily launches designed to keep steady pressure on Ukraine. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Yasir Atalan
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.

The ‘Paper Tiger’ Still Has Its Shadow Fleet

Trump says Russia is in economic trouble—but there's a loophole in the West's sanctions.

Argument
Petras Katinas

Wartime Diplomacy

From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.
From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

Trump Makes U-Turn on Ukraine Rhetoric

Trump says Ukraine can win back all of its territory.

Report
Sam Skove
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.

The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate

A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Kristi Raik
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.

An Emerging Trump Doctrine?

Success in the Middle East could be a template for a new approach to Russia’s war.

Argument
Adrian Karatnycky
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.

What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like

Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Nicholas Fenton, Maria Snegovaya

Regional Dynamics

U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.
U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine

Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Fabian Hoffmann
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania

Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter Russia

Leaders are afraid to tell voters what it will take to defend their continent. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Franz-Stefan Gady
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.

Anchors Away

Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

Argument
Elisabeth Braw
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.

The China-Russia Axis Is Getting Firmer, and It’s Built on Gas

Moscow pivoted to the east a decade ago, but it is now besmitten—or captive.

Analysis
Keith Johnson

Latest Stories

U.S. Marines land in Cuba
U.S. Marines land in Cuba

The U.S. Should Get Over Its Short War Obsession

No one wants long, grueling wars—but the consequences of impatience can be worse.

Argument
Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile
A woman demonstrates in front of the Russian Embassy in Buenos Aires.
A woman demonstrates in front of the Russian Embassy in Buenos Aires.

Why Latin America Will Stay Nonaligned

As Argentina’s president prepares to meet with the U.S. president, the bloc’s consensus on Russia’s war in Ukraine will be put to the test.

Analysis
Jacob Sugarman
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Chinese President Xi Jinping make a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Chinese President Xi Jinping make a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow.

Russia Has the Hydrocarbons, but China Has the Cash

Moscow is stumbling on energy diplomacy even now.

Report
Christina Lu
A close-up view of a TV camera is shown in front of a large, green RT logo.
A close-up view of a TV camera is shown in front of a large, green RT logo.

Russia’s Disinformation Machine Has a Middle East Advantage

Russian state-run media outlets have spread the Kremlin’s Ukraine war narrative effectively in the region.

Analysis
Anna Borshchevskaya
Vladimir Putin (R), then Russia's prime minister, walks with former U.S. President Bill Clinton at the state residence of the Russian president, Novo-Ogaryovo, outside Moscow.
Vladimir Putin (R), then Russia's prime minister, walks with former U.S. President Bill Clinton at the state residence of the Russian president, Novo-Ogaryovo, outside Moscow.

The Nuclear Education of Vladimir Putin

There is evidence the Russian president is not ignorant of the security benefits of arms control.

Argument
Amy J. Nelson
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow.

It’s Easy But Wrong to Be Cynical About Putin’s Indictment

The charges may be an important step in pushing global justice forward.

Argument
Mark Lawrence Schrad
Retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove (R), former NATO supreme allied commander Europe and former commander of the U.S. European Command, testifies at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the U.S.-Russian relationship in Washington, D.C.
Retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove (R), former NATO supreme allied commander Europe and former commander of the U.S. European Command, testifies at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the U.S.-Russian relationship in Washington, D.C.

Is the West Falling for Putin’s Nuclear Rhetoric?

Philip Breedlove, a former supreme allied commander for NATO, says policymakers are falling for Putin’s nuclear rhetoric.

Insider
Ravi Agrawal
A U.S. Army Bradley infantry fighting vehicle is seen in a military exercise between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the U.S.-led international coalition near Deir ez-Zor, Syria, on Dec. 7, 2021.
A U.S. Army Bradley infantry fighting vehicle is seen in a military exercise between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the U.S.-led international coalition near Deir ez-Zor, Syria, on Dec. 7, 2021.

Even More Than Tanks and Planes, Ukraine Needs IFVs

Front-line officers are desperate for a less glamorous weapon: the infantry fighting vehicle.

Analysis
Franz-Stefan Gady

Insider America Is Too Scared of the Multipolar World By Stephen M. Walt

People protest Russian war crimes in Ukraine while in Vienna.
People protest Russian war crimes in Ukraine while in Vienna.

Putin Wanted by ICC Over Alleged War Crimes

The court has issued arrest warrants for the Russian president and another senior official over the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children.

Report
Amy Mackinnon, Christina Lu, Jack Detsch
An aerial view shows ships at the anchorage area of the Bosphorus southern entrance in Istanbul.
An aerial view shows ships at the anchorage area of the Bosphorus southern entrance in Istanbul.

Crunch Time Looms for Black Sea Grain Export Deal

Russia wants more concessions to keep allowing vital food exports to leave Ukrainian ports.

Report
Christina Lu, Robbie Gramer
Family members grieve on the coffin of murdered civilian Ruslan Nechyporenko, 47, during his graveside funeral in Bucha, Ukraine.
Family members grieve on the coffin of murdered civilian Ruslan Nechyporenko, 47, during his graveside funeral in Bucha, Ukraine.

Even Recorded Murders Won’t Turn Russia Against the War

A crushed society is incapable of facing the truth.

Argument
Natalia Antonova
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken greets then-U.S. Charge d’Affaires to Belgium Nicholas Berliner.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken greets then-U.S. Charge d’Affaires to Belgium Nicholas Berliner.

Seasoned Russia Envoy Joins Biden’s NSC

Nicholas Berliner, a veteran diplomat, has joined the White House to run Russia policy.

Exclusive
Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is welcomed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni upon her arrival at Chigi Palace in Rome on January 9, 2023.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is welcomed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni upon her arrival at Chigi Palace in Rome on January 9, 2023.

Russia’s War Has Unified Europe’s Opposing Sides

The invasion of Ukraine has finally reconciled Europe’s liberals and nationalists.

Argument
Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard
Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.

Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War

Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.

Argument
David V. Gioe
Zelensky and Stoltenberg stand side by side at podiums. A Ukrainian flag and a NATO flag stand between them.
Zelensky and Stoltenberg stand side by side at podiums. A Ukrainian flag and a NATO flag stand between them.

Europe’s New Frontier

We thought there were buffer states in Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revealed they are frontier ones.

Analysis
Nathalie Tocci
Ukrainian soldiers fire a French CAESAR self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions in eastern Ukraine on June 15, 2022.
Ukrainian soldiers fire a French CAESAR self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions in eastern Ukraine on June 15, 2022.

Arm Ukraine or Prepare for China? Wrong Question.

No matter the goal, Washington needs to quickly fill gaps in defense production.

Argument
Peter Rough, Mike Watson
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