Russia’s War in Ukraine

News, analysis, and background on military campaigns, battlefield technology, and global diplomacy, negotiations, and sanctions.

A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.
A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.

Ukraine Is Hitting Russia Where It Hurts: Its Oil Refineries

Kyiv’s two-year offensive against Russian oil facilities has intensified, eating away at Moscow’s energy revenues.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers

Russia’s Next Opposition Will Not Be Liberal

Army corruption and mass death are breeding new dissent—deep inside Vladimir Putin’s loyal core.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat
A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat

Why the White House Is Considering Tomahawks for Ukraine

The move makes sense for U.S. strategy, but it may cause heartburn for isolationist and Pacific-focused Pentagon leaders.

Analysis
Sam Skove
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.

Putin vs. the Press

You’d have to be fearless or a fanatic to persist in journalism in Russia. These women are both.

Review
Anastasia Edel
Putin gives an interview
Putin gives an interview

From Moldova to Africa, Russia’s Power Is Waning

The defeat of Moscow-friendly parties in the Moldovan election is just the latest of many setbacks.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky, Alexander J. Motyl
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech

Europe Is on Its Own With Russia Now

Donald Trump’s latest U-turn on Ukraine doesn’t change the naked truth for Europe.

Analysis
Christian Caryl

Battlefield Strategy

Russian soldiers practice marching
Russian soldiers practice marching

Why Don’t Russian Soldiers Revolt?

Astonishing death rates and brutal abuse have not kept troops from following orders.

Analysis
Amelie Tolvin
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.

The Mood on the Front Line, Three Years On

Ukrainian troops watch with anxiety as the United States moves closer to talks with Russia over the war.

Dispatch
Fabrice Deprez
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.

How Russia Is Escalating the Drone Arms Race

Routine strikes involve smaller, daily launches designed to keep steady pressure on Ukraine. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Yasir Atalan
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.

The ‘Paper Tiger’ Still Has Its Shadow Fleet

Trump says Russia is in economic trouble—but there's a loophole in the West's sanctions.

Argument
Petras Katinas

Wartime Diplomacy

From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.
From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

Trump Makes U-Turn on Ukraine Rhetoric

Trump says Ukraine can win back all of its territory.

Report
Sam Skove
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.

The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate

A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Kristi Raik
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.

An Emerging Trump Doctrine?

Success in the Middle East could be a template for a new approach to Russia’s war.

Argument
Adrian Karatnycky
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.

What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like

Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Nicholas Fenton, Maria Snegovaya

Regional Dynamics

U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.
U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine

Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Fabian Hoffmann
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania

Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter Russia

Leaders are afraid to tell voters what it will take to defend their continent. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Franz-Stefan Gady
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.

Anchors Away

Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

Argument
Elisabeth Braw
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.

The China-Russia Axis Is Getting Firmer, and It’s Built on Gas

Moscow pivoted to the east a decade ago, but it is now besmitten—or captive.

Analysis
Keith Johnson

Latest Stories

Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during the Forum of Future Technologies in Moscow on Feb.14, 2024.
Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during the Forum of Future Technologies in Moscow on Feb.14, 2024.

Why Putin Is Stalling Trump on Ukraine

The Russian leader cannot afford to end the war he started.

Analysis
Ian Garner
Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in the Alexandrovsky Garden near the Kremlin wall in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in the Alexandrovsky Garden near the Kremlin wall in Moscow.

It’s Time for Trump to Get Tough With Putin

Only pressure on both sides will end the war in Ukraine.

Argument
Dennis Ross
A soldier with the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine, on March 13.
A soldier with the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine, on March 13.

What Washington Keeps Getting Wrong in War Planning

Misjudging an adversary’s will to fight has been a major contributor to military failures since World War II.

Analysis
Andrew L. Stigler, James Guimond
The building housing Euroclear, an international fund depository which manages some Russian assets, in Brussels, Belgium, on March 5.
The building housing Euroclear, an international fund depository which manages some Russian assets, in Brussels, Belgium, on March 5.

Seizing Russian Assets Isn’t as Easy as It Sounds

As the global order shifts, EU leaders need to tread carefully.

Argument
Charles Lichfield
Ukrainians seeking asylum in the United States in Tijuana, Mexico, on April 6, 2022.
Ukrainians seeking asylum in the United States in Tijuana, Mexico, on April 6, 2022.

Deporting Ukrainian Refugees Weakens America

Canceling legal status would be a moral and strategic mistake that weakens America’s global standing.

Argument
Tetiana Kotelnykova
In the foreground is the blurry figure of Vladimir Putin. In the background is a mirror that shows him clearly.
In the foreground is the blurry figure of Vladimir Putin. In the background is a mirror that shows him clearly.

How to Negotiate With Putin

Britain’s former ambassador to Russia on how Trump can avoid falling into the Kremlin’s trap.

Argument
Laurie Bristow
A man in army clothing walks past a poster of a man in a military uniform.
A man in army clothing walks past a poster of a man in a military uniform.

Europe’s Best Bet for Protecting Postwar Ukraine

With U.S. commitment in question, armed neutrality is the most feasible option.

Argument
Rajan Menon
German soldiers unload the U.S.-made MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system in Jasionka, Poland.
German soldiers unload the U.S.-made MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system in Jasionka, Poland.

The Latest Russian Missile Is Bad News for NATO

Oreshnik is a different beast from its predecessors.

Analysis
Decker Eveleth
U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington on Feb. 28.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington on Feb. 28.

Trump’s Rhetoric Gets Results

The U.S.-Ukraine cease-fire plan reflects the president’s overriding foreign-policy objective: to end the war.

Argument
Matthew Kroenig
U.S. President Donald Trump listens during a meeting with energy company CEOs at the White House in Washington on April 3, 2020.
U.S. President Donald Trump listens during a meeting with energy company CEOs at the White House in Washington on April 3, 2020.

Comrade Trump

Regardless of why, he’s acting exactly like a Russian asset would.

Argument
Edward Lucas
A woman walks past an advertisement for the Russian army at a bus stop.
A woman walks past an advertisement for the Russian army at a bus stop.

Russia Is Only Winning Inside Trump’s Head

As Russians will tell you, the reality on the ground looks very, very different.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
NATO military forces during a display to demonstrate NATO’s ability to rapidly deploy forces from Europe, in Smardan, Romania.
NATO military forces during a display to demonstrate NATO’s ability to rapidly deploy forces from Europe, in Smardan, Romania.

It’s Time for a New Trans-Atlantic Bargain

Europe should take primary responsibility for its security, but the United States needs to deliver key assurances to allow such a transition.

Argument
Ivo H. Daalder
Three men stand on a roof with the flags of Russia and Crimea.
Three men stand on a roof with the flags of Russia and Crimea.

Why Washington’s Stance Will Pave the Way for Russian Expansionism

Trump’s approach of seeking a deal at any cost imperils the security of Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region.

Argument
Natia Seskuria
A collage stile illustration shows a soldier waving a NATO flag. Behind are soldiers walking in front of a blue descending bar chart and graph lines.
A collage stile illustration shows a soldier waving a NATO flag. Behind are soldiers walking in front of a blue descending bar chart and graph lines.

Can Trump’s 5 Percent Defense Spending Threshold Save NATO?

Experts suggest that shifting how the alliance spends its money could be more effective against a Russian security threat.

Explainer
Alexandra Sharp
An employee handles 155 mm caliber shells manufactured at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania on April 16, 2024.
An employee handles 155 mm caliber shells manufactured at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania on April 16, 2024.

Europe Should Make a $200 Billion Deal With Trump

Cash to buy U.S. weapons for Ukraine would also help balance trade.

Argument
Bart M. J. Szewczyk
French President Emmanuel Macron (right) and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer attend commemorations marking the 106th anniversary of the Nov. 11, 1918, armistice ending World War I, in Paris.
French President Emmanuel Macron (right) and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer attend commemorations marking the 106th anniversary of the Nov. 11, 1918, armistice ending World War I, in Paris.

Europe Gets Serious About Defense Thanks to Trump’s Retreat

The U.S. president has unified Europe like few since Charlemagne. Now comes the hard part.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
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