Middle East Crisis

News, analysis, and background on the Israel-Hamas war and regional conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

 

Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank.
Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank.

As the War in Gaza Winds Down, the West Bank Is a Flash Point

If Trump wants peace, he must block Israel’s annexationist policies. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Daniel C. Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller
Trump gestures with his arms out wide behind a sculpture that reads "PEACE 2025."
Trump gestures with his arms out wide behind a sculpture that reads "PEACE 2025."

Trump’s Foreign Policy Is Not as Successful as You Think

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that the Gaza deal proves Trump’s diplomatic chops.

Argument
Howard W. French
Palestinian youths celebrate the news of a cease-fire deal outside Shuhada al-Aqsa Hospital in the central Gaza Strip on Oct. 9.
Palestinian youths celebrate the news of a cease-fire deal outside Shuhada al-Aqsa Hospital in the central Gaza Strip on Oct. 9.

One Question Looming Over the Gaza Deal: Why Now?

An outline of the agreement had been on the table for months.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
A man is seen sitting in rubble in Gaza with destroyed buildings in the background.
A man is seen sitting in rubble in Gaza with destroyed buildings in the background.

Doctor in Gaza Says Cease-Fire Brings Hope but Challenges Remain

An MSF doctor talks about the dire needs in Gaza as the cease-fire begins.

Q&A
John Haltiwanger
People gather to protest while holding Israeli and U.S. flags and banners. One banner reads "President Trump, stop the war! The mothers of Israel are behind you."
People gather to protest while holding Israeli and U.S. flags and banners. One banner reads "President Trump, stop the war! The mothers of Israel are behind you."

Trump’s Approach Just Might End the War in Gaza, but the Next Stage Is Harder

Lasting agreements require sustained focus, not just theatrics. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Daniel B. Shapiro
Soldiers in combat gear are silhouetted as they stand along a fence overlooking a dirt training area.
Soldiers in combat gear are silhouetted as they stand along a fence overlooking a dirt training area.

How the U.S. Failure in Iraq Haunts Trump’s Gaza Plan

The American-led trusteeship will command no legitimacy among Palestinians.

Analysis
Marc Lynch

Israel-Hamas War

Trump holds up a finger as he speaks to the press, with microphones pointed at him.
Trump holds up a finger as he speaks to the press, with microphones pointed at him.

What We Can Learn From Trump’s Success in Gaza

In diplomacy, style now matters just as much as substance. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Suzanne Nossel
An Israeli flag hangs from a metal pole alongside loudspeakers on a beach, with dozens beachgoers playing and lounging on the edge of the sea in the background.
An Israeli flag hangs from a metal pole alongside loudspeakers on a beach, with dozens beachgoers playing and lounging on the edge of the sea in the background.

Two Ways Oct. 7 Changed Israel and One Way It Didn’t

The impact will be felt for years, even if Trump’s peace plan succeeds.

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
Dozens of people crowd together, many with their arms raised in celebration. Closest to the camera are two boys about 8 to 12 years old, both holding up their fingers in the V-shaped peace symbols as they beam at the camera.
Dozens of people crowd together, many with their arms raised in celebration. Closest to the camera are two boys about 8 to 12 years old, both holding up their fingers in the V-shaped peace symbols as they beam at the camera.

Can Palestinians Trust Donald Trump?

Only U.S. pressure will ensure that Israel honors the Gaza cease-fire.

Analysis
Omar H. Rahman
A road is clogged with a vast mass of people stretching to the horizon. On one side is the sea on the other is devastation from the war in Gaza.
A road is clogged with a vast mass of people stretching to the horizon. On one side is the sea on the other is devastation from the war in Gaza.

Two Years After Oct. 7, a Trail of What-Ifs

Decisions made early on set the path for a devastating war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Steven A. Cook

Iran-Israel Tensions

Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.
Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb

Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

Argument
James M. Acton
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.

Iran’s Collapse Could Cause a Nuclear Security Nightmare

Washington would struggle to secure dangerous materials, technologies, and expertise.

Argument
Eric Brewer, Scott Roecker
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.

Iran Is Islamism’s Last Lifeline in the Middle East

Without support from a weakened Tehran, the region’s extremist movements would wither.

Argument
Lina Khatib
Smoke rises over several buildings.
Smoke rises over several buildings.

The Next Israel-Iran War Is Coming

Both countries’ strategic calculus suggests it will be even more violent.

Argument
Trita Parsi

Israel and Hezbollah

Fire and tear gas smoke rise among a crowd in Beirut.
Fire and tear gas smoke rise among a crowd in Beirut.

Hezbollah Is Weak Enough for Lebanon to Finally Disarm It

The government and army are taking back their own country.

Argument
Oz Katerji
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.

Lebanon’s Demining Mission Faces Aid Uncertainty

Cuts to foreign assistance and a fragile cease-fire have made the urgent work more dangerous.

Dispatch
Anagha Subhash Nair
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.

Lebanon’s Success Depends on Sidelining Hezbollah

The new government in Beirut is the country’s best chance for reform in years—but support from Washington and Riyadh will be crucial.

Argument
Bilal Y. Saab
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.

Hezbollah Is Trying to Spin Loss as Victory

Assad’s fall and Israel’s offensive give Lebanese a chance to reclaim their country.

Argument
Oz Katerji

Regional Dynamics

President Donald J. Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at the Amiri Diwan, the official workplace of the emir, on May 14, 2025, in Doha, Qatar.
President Donald J. Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at the Amiri Diwan, the official workplace of the emir, on May 14, 2025, in Doha, Qatar.

America’s Accidental New Military Ally

The Trump administration has made an unprecedentedly sloppy security guarantee to Qatar.

Analysis
Bilal Y. Saab
Plume of smoke rise into a blue sky following an explosion from a row of low and midrise buildings, several with industrial smokestacks, several without. A road a the bottom of the image heads toward the town, with a car and a person on a motorbike heading in that direction.
Plume of smoke rise into a blue sky following an explosion from a row of low and midrise buildings, several with industrial smokestacks, several without. A road a the bottom of the image heads toward the town, with a car and a person on a motorbike heading in that direction.

Ankara’s New Syrian Headache

Toppling Assad didn’t solve Turkey’s problems—it made them worse.

Analysis
Gonul Tol
A man in military garb, including face covering and helmet, stands with a gun and wears a string of jasmine in front of a crowd holding flags.
A man in military garb, including face covering and helmet, stands with a gun and wears a string of jasmine in front of a crowd holding flags.

How Israel’s Strikes on the Houthis Will Change Yemen

For years, the group has relied on the perception that it is untouchable.

Analysis
Fatima Abo Alasrar
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands in Moscow on October 15.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands in Moscow on October 15.

Buying the Hatchet

How arms deals are helping Sharaa to make up with Moscow.

Analysis
Ahmad Sharawi

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)
Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)

Why the Oslo Peace Process Failed

And what it means for future negotiators.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.

The Palestinian Leader Who Survived the Death of Palestine

What would it mean for Hussein al-Sheikh to lead a people whose dream of independence is no longer alive? This article has an audio recording

Profile
Adam Rasgon, Aaron Boxerman
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.

How Will This War End? How Can the Next One be Prevented?

FP asks experts two questions about the fighting between Israelis and Palestinians.

Roundup
Zaha Hassan, Daniel C. Kurtzer, Omar M. Dajani, Diana Buttu, Peter R. Mansoor, Daniel Levy, Ehud Olmert, Eugene Kontorovich, Elliott Abrams
A child is silhouetted as he walks across a pile of rubble while carrying a flag.
A child is silhouetted as he walks across a pile of rubble while carrying a flag.

How Washington’s Israel-Palestine Peace Process Theology Failed Again and Again

Trump’s plan is just the latest example.

Review
Khaled Elgindy

Latest Stories

A protestor wearing a keffiyeh and a shirt that reads "LIBERATE PALESTINE" holds her hands up (which are covered in red). Her cheeks are also striped in red.
A protestor wearing a keffiyeh and a shirt that reads "LIBERATE PALESTINE" holds her hands up (which are covered in red). Her cheeks are also striped in red.

Biden Didn’t Really Try to End the War in Gaza

U.S.-led diplomatic talks were essentially a performance, doomed from the outset.

Argument
Nathan J. Robinson
An attack helicopter cuts across a blue sky dotted with fluffy wisps of clouds. Four large birds also fly across the sky beneath the helicopter, their wingspans stretched wide in flight.
An attack helicopter cuts across a blue sky dotted with fluffy wisps of clouds. Four large birds also fly across the sky beneath the helicopter, their wingspans stretched wide in flight.

5 Questions About the Cease-Fire Between Israel and Hezbollah

Limited strikes could continue even after the truce.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
A protester dressed as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and another dressed as U.S. President Donald Trump demonstrate outside the White House on Oct. 19, 2018, in the wake of the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
A protester dressed as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and another dressed as U.S. President Donald Trump demonstrate outside the White House on Oct. 19, 2018, in the wake of the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Why the Gulf States Might Feature Prominently in Trump’s Foreign Policy

One likely goal: expanding the Abraham Accords.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller, Lauren Morganbesser
Displaced Palestinians gather amid tents flooded by heavy rain at a makeshift camp in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 27.
Displaced Palestinians gather amid tents flooded by heavy rain at a makeshift camp in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 27.

The U.S. Must Support Gaza Before Winter

Seasonal rains and flooding portend further humanitarian catastrophe.

Argument
Sarah E. Parkinson, Feroze Sidhwa
Biden looks pensive as he sits in front of Israeli and U.S. flags.
Biden looks pensive as he sits in front of Israeli and U.S. flags.

What Biden Must Do to Help Gaza Now

The outgoing administration has one last chance to do the right thing.

Argument
Stacy Gilbert
Iranians walk and drive past a billboard with an image depicting a missile attack over Israel in Tehran on Oct. 3.
Iranians walk and drive past a billboard with an image depicting a missile attack over Israel in Tehran on Oct. 3.

Will Tehran Make a Dash for the Bomb?

With other components of its defense strategy in tatters, attention turns to Iran’s nuclear threshold capability.

Analysis
Sina Azodi
A view of Tehran's skyline at dawn after several explosions were heard in the city.
A view of Tehran's skyline at dawn after several explosions were heard in the city.

What Israel’s Attack on Iran Means for the Region

This week’s strikes could draw a line in the sand—or set the stage for a bigger offensive.

Analysis
Rishi Iyengar
A crowd of Israeli protesters gathers on a street in Tel Aviv at night. A woman close to the front holds up a handwritten sign that says "Now end the Sin-War. Bring them home." Others gathered around wave Israeli flags or signs printed in Hebrew.
A crowd of Israeli protesters gathers on a street in Tel Aviv at night. A woman close to the front holds up a handwritten sign that says "Now end the Sin-War. Bring them home." Others gathered around wave Israeli flags or signs printed in Hebrew.

Sinwar’s Death Gives Bibi a Boost—but Not Much More

A cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas remains far off.

Analysis
Daniel C. Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller
Hamas leader Sinwar
Hamas leader Sinwar

Why Sinwar’s Death Matters

The Hamas leader’s demise closes the first act of the war and sets up what comes next.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Yahya Sinwar looks over his shoulder while standing in a crowd of people at a rally in a square or street in Gaza. He makes a "V" for victory sign with the fingers of one raised hand. A man in camouflage stands next to him. Both of them and many of the rally attendees wear green scarves.
Yahya Sinwar looks over his shoulder while standing in a crowd of people at a rally in a square or street in Gaza. He makes a "V" for victory sign with the fingers of one raised hand. A man in camouflage stands next to him. Both of them and many of the rally attendees wear green scarves.

Israel’s Killing of Yahya Sinwar Is Not a Turning Point

While the Hamas leader’s death represents a political victory for Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel is no closer to a realistic plan for governing Gaza.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington.
U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington.

Biden’s ‘Bear Hug’ of Israel Is a Failure

The administration’s unwavering support has brought the Middle East to the brink of all-out war.

Analysis
Khaled Elgindy
A participant holds an anti-Israel sign during a rally celebrating an Iranian missile attack on Israel in Palestine Square in Tehran on Oct. 1.
A participant holds an anti-Israel sign during a rally celebrating an Iranian missile attack on Israel in Palestine Square in Tehran on Oct. 1.

Iran’s Terrible, Horrible, Very Bad Year

Tehran was in a stronger strategic position before its proxies plunged the region into war.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
A group of Jewish settlers under the protection of Israeli soldiers raid the Old City area of Hebron.
A group of Jewish settlers under the protection of Israeli soldiers raid the Old City area of Hebron.

How Settler Violence Serves Israel’s Interests

Attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank have surged since Oct. 7, 2023.

Analysis
Yagil Levy
People stand on top of the remains of an Iranian missile in the Negev desert in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.
People stand on top of the remains of an Iranian missile in the Negev desert in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.

What Is Iran Trying to Prove?

Leaders in Tehran believe that Washington will restrain Israel in order to prevent a regional conflagration.

Analysis
Vali Nasr
Soldiers in combat gear are silhouetted against a smoky, hazy landscape with buildings in the background.
Soldiers in combat gear are silhouetted against a smoky, hazy landscape with buildings in the background.

More Wars, a Failed State, and a Step Back by the United States

What to expect after the war in Gaza ends.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
An illustration shows two missiles arcing across the sky above a lone figure amid a scene of destruction with the shells of buildings on either side.
An illustration shows two missiles arcing across the sky above a lone figure amid a scene of destruction with the shells of buildings on either side.

Is the Israel-Hamas War Closer to Its Beginning or Its End?

A year on, FP asks experts to assess the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.

Analysis
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, M.L. deRaismes Combes, Dana El Kurd, Marwan Muasher, John Nagl, Amit Segal, Hagar Shezaf
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