Middle East Crisis

News, analysis, and background on the Israel-Hamas war and regional conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

A woman walks past a billboard, put up by the Coalition for Regional Security, displayed in Tel Aviv on June 26.
A woman walks past a billboard, put up by the Coalition for Regional Security, displayed in Tel Aviv on June 26.

Meet the New Middle East, Same as the Old Middle East

Everything has changed in the region, and nothing is different.

Argument
Stephen M. Walt
U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a dinner in the White House in Washington, DC on July 7.
U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a dinner in the White House in Washington, DC on July 7.

Only Trump Can Save Israel from Its Own Government

Netanyahu’s plan to seize Gaza is a catastrophe for all. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Philip H. Gordon
Samuel Zbogar, the head of the Slovenian mission to the United Nations Security Council, speaks to the press alongside other U.N. representatives ahead of a Security Council emergency meeting on Gaza at the U.N. headquarters in New York on Aug. 10.
Samuel Zbogar, the head of the Slovenian mission to the United Nations Security Council, speaks to the press alongside other U.N. representatives ahead of a Security Council emergency meeting on Gaza at the U.N. headquarters in New York on Aug. 10.

What Was the Tipping Point on Gaza?

After almost two years of war, Israel is feeling the growing weight of governmental opprobrium.

Analysis
Emma Ashford
Smoke rises over several buildings.
Smoke rises over several buildings.

The Next Israel-Iran War Is Coming

Both countries’ strategic calculus suggests it will be even more violent.

Argument
Trita Parsi
A view of the destruction at Evin Prison in Tehran, Iran, after it was hit by an Israeli airstrike on June 23, viewed on July 1.
A view of the destruction at Evin Prison in Tehran, Iran, after it was hit by an Israeli airstrike on June 23, viewed on July 1.

What the War Changed Inside Iran

The regime has been pushed to the edge of strategic pivot.

Analysis
Alex Vatanka
Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.
Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb

Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

Argument
James M. Acton

Israel-Hamas War

Palestinians children push to receive a hot meal at a charity kitchen in the Mawasi area of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on July 22.
Palestinians children push to receive a hot meal at a charity kitchen in the Mawasi area of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on July 22.

Could Images of the Famine in Gaza Change Israeli Public Opinion?

A newscast showing starving children prompted sympathy—and criticism.

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
A heavily damaged building can be seen with a Syria flag nearby.
A heavily damaged building can be seen with a Syria flag nearby.

Israel Isn’t a Hegemon Yet, But It’s Now a Revisionist Power

Netanyahu is seeking to remake the Middle East by force.

Argument
Rob Geist Pinfold
Biden walks between massive white columns outside of the White House. He wears a dark suit and a blue tie, and his head is tilted down toward the ground.
Biden walks between massive white columns outside of the White House. He wears a dark suit and a blue tie, and his head is tilted down toward the ground.

Biden’s Team Lied About Gaza. It’s Time to Hold Them Accountable.

Impunity for abetting war crimes weakens U.S. democracy.

Shadow Government
Matthew Duss
Four people stand while holding a banner that reads Gaza: Action Not Words. On the banner the names of thousands of children who have died as a result of the war.
Four people stand while holding a banner that reads Gaza: Action Not Words. On the banner the names of thousands of children who have died as a result of the war.

Why Recognizing Palestine Is Meaningless or Even Harmful

Recent announcements by France, Britain, and Canada are mostly performative.

Argument
Steven A. Cook

Iran-Israel Tensions

A U.S. B-2 "Spirit" stealth bomber flies over Pasadena, California, on Jan. 1.
A U.S. B-2 "Spirit" stealth bomber flies over Pasadena, California, on Jan. 1.

Strikes on Iran Show the Force, and Limits, of Airpower

Technical dominance can’t compel regime change. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Robert Farley
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.

Iran’s Collapse Could Cause a Nuclear Security Nightmare

Washington would struggle to secure dangerous materials, technologies, and expertise.

Argument
Eric Brewer, Scott Roecker
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.

Iran Is Islamism’s Last Lifeline in the Middle East

Without support from a weakened Tehran, the region’s extremist movements would wither.

Argument
Lina Khatib
A man rides a horse next to the remains of an Iranian missile near the Israeli settlement of Tekoa in the occupied West Bank, on June 29.
A man rides a horse next to the remains of an Iranian missile near the Israeli settlement of Tekoa in the occupied West Bank, on June 29.

Iran and the Logic of Limited Wars

No one wants a long war, and doing nothing was no longer an option.

Argument
Raphael S. Cohen

Israel and Hezbollah

Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.

Hezbollah Is Trying to Spin Loss as Victory

Assad’s fall and Israel’s offensive give Lebanese a chance to reclaim their country.

Argument
Oz Katerji
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.

Lebanon’s Demining Mission Faces Aid Uncertainty

Cuts to foreign assistance and a fragile cease-fire have made the urgent work more dangerous.

Dispatch
Anagha Subhash Nair
A Lebanese Army soldier stands guard in the southern Lebanese town of Naqura after Israel's withdrawal from the area, on Jan. 7.
A Lebanese Army soldier stands guard in the southern Lebanese town of Naqura after Israel's withdrawal from the area, on Jan. 7.

Surprisingly, the Lebanon-Israel Cease-Fire Is Holding

Notwithstanding continued exchanges, the agreement is functioning and appears durable.

Analysis
David Schenker
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.

Lebanon’s Success Depends on Sidelining Hezbollah

The new government in Beirut is the country’s best chance for reform in years—but support from Washington and Riyadh will be crucial.

Argument
Bilal Y. Saab

Global Reactions

Flags of the United Arab Emirates and Israel are displayed.
Flags of the United Arab Emirates and Israel are displayed.

Can a ‘New’ Middle East Survive the ‘Old’?

To achieve regional progress, Arab leaders need to rethink the importance of resolving the Palestine question once and for all.

Argument
Kabir Taneja
Houthi troops holding weapons stand in front of buildings during an anti-Israel, anti-U.S. rally in Sanaa, Yemen, on Jan. 19.
Houthi troops holding weapons stand in front of buildings during an anti-Israel, anti-U.S. rally in Sanaa, Yemen, on Jan. 19.

The Middle East’s Next Aftershocks

The Trump administration will find it hard to disengage from a region still being reshaped by the effects of Oct. 7.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump participate in a joint news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, D.C.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump participate in a joint news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, D.C.

Trump Has Leverage With Syria’s Neighbors—Here’s How He Should Use It

U.S. pressure on Israel and Turkey could help stabilize Syria. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Steven A. Cook
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian shakes hands with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan, in Tehran.
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian shakes hands with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan, in Tehran.

Can the Gulf’s Iran Policy Survive the War?

Israel and the Gulf have rival visions for Iran’s role in the region. Now Washington has to pick one.

Analysis
Mona Yacoubian

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)
Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)

Why the Oslo Peace Process Failed

And what it means for future negotiators.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.

The Palestinian Leader Who Survived the Death of Palestine

What would it mean for Hussein al-Sheikh to lead a people whose dream of independence is no longer alive? This article has an audio recording

Profile
Adam Rasgon, Aaron Boxerman
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.

How Will This War End? How Can the Next One be Prevented?

FP asks experts two questions about the fighting between Israelis and Palestinians.

Roundup
Zaha Hassan, Daniel C. Kurtzer, Omar M. Dajani, Diana Buttu, Peter R. Mansoor, Daniel Levy, Ehud Olmert, Eugene Kontorovich, Elliott Abrams
A Palestinian man carries his child to cross a roadblock in the West Bank city of Hebron in 2003. Rubble fills the land he walks across and barbed wire coils in front of him. A woman with a head covering follows behind them.
A Palestinian man carries his child to cross a roadblock in the West Bank city of Hebron in 2003. Rubble fills the land he walks across and barbed wire coils in front of him. A woman with a head covering follows behind them.

All the Palestinians Got From Oslo Was KFC

Thirty years of the peace process has left us with less land and fewer rights.

Essay
Dalia Hatuqa

Latest Stories

Mourners carry the caskets, covered in yellow cloth, and signs depicting the images of Hezbollah members Ibrahim Sharaf al-Din, Muhammad Hussein Ali Rabah, and Hussein Ali Majid in Beirut.
Mourners carry the caskets, covered in yellow cloth, and signs depicting the images of Hezbollah members Ibrahim Sharaf al-Din, Muhammad Hussein Ali Rabah, and Hussein Ali Majid in Beirut.

Can Israel Kill Its Way to Victory Over Hezbollah?

The group has been degraded but can still inflict serious harm.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
A woman in a headscarf and dark dress sits on steps with her head in her arms crying.
A woman in a headscarf and dark dress sits on steps with her head in her arms crying.

How Beirut Reacted to Nasrallah’s Death

After Hezbollah confirmed its leader had been killed in an Israeli airstrike, all hell broke loose in the streets.

Report
Stefanie Glinski
An Iraqi demonstrator holds a picture of Hassan Nasrallah, late leader of the Lebanese group Hezbollah, during a protest vigil in Baghdad on Sept. 28.
An Iraqi demonstrator holds a picture of Hassan Nasrallah, late leader of the Lebanese group Hezbollah, during a protest vigil in Baghdad on Sept. 28.

Charisma and Militancy Powered Nasrallah’s Rise, but He Became One More Corrupt Warlord

The Hezbollah leader’s death will not bring lasting peace for Israel.

Analysis
Thanassis Cambanis
Smoke billows from Israeli airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs.
Smoke billows from Israeli airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs.

Hezbollah Leader Killed in Israeli Airstrike, Group Confirms

Hassan Nasrallah’s death marks a dramatic escalation in Israel’s campaign against the militant group.

Report
Amy Mackinnon, Jack Detsch
Young people march with large portraits depicting Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Young people march with large portraits depicting Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Pinpoint Israeli Intelligence Enabled Strike on Nasrallah in Lebanon

Israel killed the Hezbollah leader, capping a series of stunning operations.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
Northbound traffic is seen backed up heading into Beirut, with southbound lanes largely empty. Buildings frame either side of the roadway.
Northbound traffic is seen backed up heading into Beirut, with southbound lanes largely empty. Buildings frame either side of the roadway.

With Israel’s Airstrikes, Beirut Plunges Into Panic

One family flees their village in the south for uncertain refuge in the capital.

Report
Stefanie Glinski
A mushroom cloud of pale gray smoke billows up against a hazy sky from mid-rise buildings in a neighborhood of a densely constructed town.
A mushroom cloud of pale gray smoke billows up against a hazy sky from mid-rise buildings in a neighborhood of a densely constructed town.

Will Hezbollah Choose to Keep Its Word—or Its Arsenal?

The militant group must decide between walking back its threat to northern Israel or risking the loss of its advanced missile capabilities.

Analysis
Hanin Ghaddar
People watch a televised speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah from a cafe at the entrance of the Sabra camp for Palestinian refugees in Beirut.
People watch a televised speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah from a cafe at the entrance of the Sabra camp for Palestinian refugees in Beirut.

The Beeper Balance Sheet

The stunning attacks are a setback for Hezbollah but raise risks for Israel.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
People gather at the entrance of the American University of Beirut Medical Center.
People gather at the entrance of the American University of Beirut Medical Center.

The Biggest Question About the Hezbollah Pager Attack Is Why Now

A technically adroit strike could be a curtain-raiser for an expanded conflict.

Analysis
Colin P. Clarke
Luis Almagro, the secretary-general of the Organization of American States, attends a meeting in Guatemala City on Sept. 11, 2023.
Luis Almagro, the secretary-general of the Organization of American States, attends a meeting in Guatemala City on Sept. 11, 2023.

Gaza Is Causing Diplomatic Rifts in the Western Hemisphere

The Organization of American States’ pro-Israel stance may erode its legitimacy in the region.

Argument
Francesca Emanuele
Soldiers with the Israel Defense Forces stand near a military vehicle on March 4, 2024 in southern Israel near the border with Gaza.
Soldiers with the Israel Defense Forces stand near a military vehicle on March 4, 2024 in southern Israel near the border with Gaza.

A Cease-Fire in Gaza Wouldn’t End Israel’s Wars

The region’s most bitter conflicts aren’t all linked to one another.

Analysis
Steven A. Cook
Four men, three with prosthetic legs, wear bike helmets and t-shirts as they stand in a parking lot, gathered around a bicycle held up by the man second from the right. The sky above is a dim, dark blue; it seems to be either dawn or dusk.
Four men, three with prosthetic legs, wear bike helmets and t-shirts as they stand in a parking lot, gathered around a bicycle held up by the man second from the right. The sky above is a dim, dark blue; it seems to be either dawn or dusk.

Meet the Para-Cyclists Riding for Gaza

The Sunbirds’ story began with tragedy but has evolved into one of resilience.

Dispatch
Jonathan Rashad
A woman at a rally wipes at her eyes behind a pair of sunglasses while holding up a poster at a rally. The poster reads "Bring Hersh home," Hersh being the name of her son.
A woman at a rally wipes at her eyes behind a pair of sunglasses while holding up a poster at a rally. The poster reads "Bring Hersh home," Hersh being the name of her son.

A Way Forward in the Israeli Hostage Crisis

Netanyahu is an obstacle, but Biden has an alternative.

Argument
Mickey Bergman
A man rides his moped past a billboard bearing portraits of slain leaders, Ismail Haniyeh of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, Iranian Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani, and Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr on the main road near the Beirut International Airport on August 3, 2024.
A man rides his moped past a billboard bearing portraits of slain leaders, Ismail Haniyeh of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, Iranian Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani, and Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr on the main road near the Beirut International Airport on August 3, 2024.

Can Israel Really Deter Hezbollah?

Even in far-reaching scenarios, Lebanon won’t easily turn on Shia militia.

Analysis
Anchal Vohra
The sihouette of Palestinian children overlook a camp for displaced people in Rafah.
The sihouette of Palestinian children overlook a camp for displaced people in Rafah.

How 100,000 Palestinians Are Surviving in Egypt Without Refugee Status

Even after buying their way out of Gaza, Palestinians remain vulnerable.

Dispatch
Azza Guergues
A man clears rubble from a building hit during Israeli bombardment in Nuseirat, in the central Gaza Strip.
A man clears rubble from a building hit during Israeli bombardment in Nuseirat, in the central Gaza Strip.

The Existential Fears Driving Israel’s Aggressive Military Action

Israelis believed their country’s survival was no longer in question. Not anymore.

Argument
David E. Rosenberg
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