Russia’s War in Ukraine

News, analysis, and background on military campaigns, battlefield technology, and global diplomacy, negotiations, and sanctions.

A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.
A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.

Ukraine Is Hitting Russia Where It Hurts: Its Oil Refineries

Kyiv’s two-year offensive against Russian oil facilities has intensified, eating away at Moscow’s energy revenues.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers

Russia’s Next Opposition Will Not Be Liberal

Army corruption and mass death are breeding new dissent—deep inside Vladimir Putin’s loyal core.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.

Ukraine Needs More Drones

Tight cooperation with Beijing and Tehran is giving Moscow an edge on the critical weapons.

Analysis
Sam Skove
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.

Putin vs. the Press

You’d have to be fearless or a fanatic to persist in journalism in Russia. These women are both.

Review
Anastasia Edel
Putin gives an interview
Putin gives an interview

From Moldova to Africa, Russia’s Power Is Waning

The defeat of Moscow-friendly parties in the Moldovan election is just the latest of many setbacks.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky, Alexander J. Motyl
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech

Europe Is on Its Own With Russia Now

Donald Trump’s latest U-turn on Ukraine doesn’t change the naked truth for Europe.

Analysis
Christian Caryl

Battlefield Strategy

A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat
A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat

Why the White House Is Considering Tomahawks for Ukraine

The move makes sense for U.S. strategy, but it may cause heartburn for isolationist and Pacific-focused Pentagon leaders.

Analysis
Sam Skove
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.

The Mood on the Front Line, Three Years On

Ukrainian troops watch with anxiety as the United States moves closer to talks with Russia over the war.

Dispatch
Fabrice Deprez
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.

How Russia Is Escalating the Drone Arms Race

Routine strikes involve smaller, daily launches designed to keep steady pressure on Ukraine. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Yasir Atalan
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.

The ‘Paper Tiger’ Still Has Its Shadow Fleet

Trump says Russia is in economic trouble—but there's a loophole in the West's sanctions.

Argument
Petras Katinas

Wartime Diplomacy

From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.
From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

Trump Makes U-Turn on Ukraine Rhetoric

Trump says Ukraine can win back all of its territory.

Report
Sam Skove
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.

The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate

A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Kristi Raik
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.

An Emerging Trump Doctrine?

Success in the Middle East could be a template for a new approach to Russia’s war.

Argument
Adrian Karatnycky
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.

What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like

Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Nicholas Fenton, Maria Snegovaya

Regional Dynamics

U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.
U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine

Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Fabian Hoffmann
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania

Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter Russia

Leaders are afraid to tell voters what it will take to defend their continent. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Franz-Stefan Gady
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.

Anchors Away

Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

Argument
Elisabeth Braw
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.

The China-Russia Axis Is Getting Firmer, and It’s Built on Gas

Moscow pivoted to the east a decade ago, but it is now besmitten—or captive.

Analysis
Keith Johnson

Latest Stories

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in London.
Then-U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in London.

Anxious World Leaders Descend on Munich

Doubts on Ukraine and growing alarm about a second Trump term are likely to dominate the agenda.

Situation Report
Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch
The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.
The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.

European Lawmakers Issue Dire Warnings Over Stalled Ukraine Aid Package

“If you don’t want another Pearl Harbor, you better listen to us,” cautioned one Lithuanian politician.

Report
Amy Mackinnon
Two men in casual clothes standing in a crowd at a rally flank a third man, who wears a paper Vladimir Putin mask over his face.
Two men in casual clothes standing in a crowd at a rally flank a third man, who wears a paper Vladimir Putin mask over his face.

Is Africa Corps a Rebranded Wagner Group?

The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin has accelerated a shift in Russia’s interventions on the continent.

Analysis
John A. Lechner, Sergey Eledinov
U.S. and Swedish Marines ride on a CB90 fast assault craft as they participate in a military exercise in the Stockholm Archipelago.
U.S. and Swedish Marines ride on a CB90 fast assault craft as they participate in a military exercise in the Stockholm Archipelago.

Sweden Is Making the Most of NATO’s Waiting Room

Sweden’s military has taken a 500-year path to joining NATO, from the Vikings through Napoleon and neutrality. So what’s another few months?

Feature
Jack Detsch
Valery Zaluzhny, commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is seen during official celebrations for Ukrainian Independence Day in Kyiv.
Valery Zaluzhny, commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is seen during official celebrations for Ukrainian Independence Day in Kyiv.

Ukraine’s Military Faces Major Shake-up

Valery Zaluzhny, the general credited with many of Ukraine’s battlefield successes, is likely headed for the exits.

Situation Report
Jack Detsch, Amy Mackinnon, Robbie Gramer
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks to journalists at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks to journalists at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

How Europe Can Prepare for a Second Trump Term—Now

The continent must bolster its own defense capabilities before an isolationist ringleader returns to the White House.

Argument
Doug Klain, James Batchik
A view of the Russian Central Bank headquarters in downtown Moscow. The Russian flag flies above the building.
A view of the Russian Central Bank headquarters in downtown Moscow. The Russian flag flies above the building.

The U.S. Is Considering Giving Russia’s Frozen Assets to Ukraine

The unprecedented move could offer a tidy way to make Moscow pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Report
Keith Johnson, Amy Mackinnon
U.S. President Joe Biden stands behind a podium onstage at a NATO summit, speaking into a microphone, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stands beside him with a serious expression on his face. Biden wears a navy suit, while Zelensky is dressed more casually in his usual army green trousers and polo shirt.
U.S. President Joe Biden stands behind a podium onstage at a NATO summit, speaking into a microphone, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stands beside him with a serious expression on his face. Biden wears a navy suit, while Zelensky is dressed more casually in his usual army green trousers and polo shirt.

U.S. and Germany Push to Delay Ukraine NATO Membership Invite

Ukraine and its Eastern European allies want the invite to come soon, but Washington and Berlin are wary.

Report
Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch
Tourists inspect Russian wooden dolls showing Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, in downtown Moscow on Nov. 15, 2023.
Tourists inspect Russian wooden dolls showing Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, in downtown Moscow on Nov. 15, 2023.

Is China Sincere About Peace in Ukraine?

Beijing has done very little to help—but it could.

Argument
Vita Golod
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledges supporters at the conclusion of a campaign rally at the Sheraton Portsmouth Harborside Hotel in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledges supporters at the conclusion of a campaign rally at the Sheraton Portsmouth Harborside Hotel in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.

Europe Braces for Trump 2.0

European officials are scrambling to ensure the transatlantic relationship can survive the U.S. election.

Situation Report
Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer
A woman wearing a Soviet military uniform directs pedestrians during an exhibition of Soviet tanks and military vehicles at Red Square in Moscow.
A woman wearing a Soviet military uniform directs pedestrians during an exhibition of Soviet tanks and military vehicles at Red Square in Moscow.

The Broken Bargain of Russian Womanhood

Why they won’t rebel against the war that kills their men.

Essay
Anastasia Edel
Ukrainian soldiers drive a tank close to the front near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, on Dec. 13, 2023.
Ukrainian soldiers drive a tank close to the front near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, on Dec. 13, 2023.

­­Ukraine Has a Pathway to Victory

Why the new conventional wisdom that the war is a stalemate favoring Russia is wrong.

Analysis
Rose Gottemoeller, Michael Ryan
Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries are pictured on an open field in Zamosc, Poland.
Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries are pictured on an open field in Zamosc, Poland.

NATO Scrambles to Reload Ukraine’s Air Defense

With U.S. military aid to Ukraine frozen, Europe is ramping up support.

Situation Report
Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer
A woman wearing winter clothes and a reflective orange vest smiles as she hands a piece of rubble to another woman. Other volunteers stand around them as they help to clear rubble as snowflakes fall around them.
A woman wearing winter clothes and a reflective orange vest smiles as she hands a piece of rubble to another woman. Other volunteers stand around them as they help to clear rubble as snowflakes fall around them.

The Ukraine War May Be Decided at the Ballot Box

Political and economic changes in 2024 could weaken Kyiv’s struggle.

Argument
Eugene Chausovsky
This photograph shows a school classroom damaged as a result of a Russian missile strike in the city of Lviv, western Ukraine.
This photograph shows a school classroom damaged as a result of a Russian missile strike in the city of Lviv, western Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Nightmare Scenario Is Now Its Reality

The ground has frozen. The aid is freezing, too.

Report
Jack Detsch
People visit a makeshift memorial for Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in central Moscow on Oct. 1.
People visit a makeshift memorial for Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in central Moscow on Oct. 1.

Russia Is Divvying Up Prigozhin’s Empire Among Putin’s Cronies

Wagner’s African resources are up for grabs.

Argument
Lucian Staiano-Daniels
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