Russia’s War in Ukraine

News, analysis, and background on military campaigns, battlefield technology, and global diplomacy, negotiations, and sanctions.

A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.
A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.

Ukraine Is Hitting Russia Where It Hurts: Its Oil Refineries

Kyiv’s two-year offensive against Russian oil facilities has intensified, eating away at Moscow’s energy revenues.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers

Russia’s Next Opposition Will Not Be Liberal

Army corruption and mass death are breeding new dissent—deep inside Vladimir Putin’s loyal core.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.

Ukraine Needs More Drones

Tight cooperation with Beijing and Tehran is giving Moscow an edge on the critical weapons.

Analysis
Sam Skove
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.

Putin vs. the Press

You’d have to be fearless or a fanatic to persist in journalism in Russia. These women are both.

Review
Anastasia Edel
Putin gives an interview
Putin gives an interview

From Moldova to Africa, Russia’s Power Is Waning

The defeat of Moscow-friendly parties in the Moldovan election is just the latest of many setbacks.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky, Alexander J. Motyl
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech

Europe Is on Its Own With Russia Now

Donald Trump’s latest U-turn on Ukraine doesn’t change the naked truth for Europe.

Analysis
Christian Caryl

Battlefield Strategy

A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat
A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat

Why the White House Is Considering Tomahawks for Ukraine

The move makes sense for U.S. strategy, but it may cause heartburn for isolationist and Pacific-focused Pentagon leaders.

Analysis
Sam Skove
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.

The Mood on the Front Line, Three Years On

Ukrainian troops watch with anxiety as the United States moves closer to talks with Russia over the war.

Dispatch
Fabrice Deprez
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.

How Russia Is Escalating the Drone Arms Race

Routine strikes involve smaller, daily launches designed to keep steady pressure on Ukraine. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Yasir Atalan
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.

The ‘Paper Tiger’ Still Has Its Shadow Fleet

Trump says Russia is in economic trouble—but there's a loophole in the West's sanctions.

Argument
Petras Katinas

Wartime Diplomacy

From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.
From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

Trump Makes U-Turn on Ukraine Rhetoric

Trump says Ukraine can win back all of its territory.

Report
Sam Skove
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.

The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate

A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Kristi Raik
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.

An Emerging Trump Doctrine?

Success in the Middle East could be a template for a new approach to Russia’s war.

Argument
Adrian Karatnycky
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.

What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like

Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Nicholas Fenton, Maria Snegovaya

Regional Dynamics

U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.
U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine

Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Fabian Hoffmann
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania

Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter Russia

Leaders are afraid to tell voters what it will take to defend their continent. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Franz-Stefan Gady
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.

Anchors Away

Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

Argument
Elisabeth Braw
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.

The China-Russia Axis Is Getting Firmer, and It’s Built on Gas

Moscow pivoted to the east a decade ago, but it is now besmitten—or captive.

Analysis
Keith Johnson

Latest Stories

Two men wearing military camouflage fatigues and matching hats stand in front of a building with large glass doors labeled with a logo that reads "Wagner Center" in Russian.
Two men wearing military camouflage fatigues and matching hats stand in front of a building with large glass doors labeled with a logo that reads "Wagner Center" in Russian.

Is the Wagner Group a Terrorist Organization?

The answer could have wide-ranging implications for U.S. policy in Africa and beyond

Report
Amy Mackinnon
A man walks past the headquarters of the Federal Security Service, the successor agency to the KGB, in central Moscow.
A man walks past the headquarters of the Federal Security Service, the successor agency to the KGB, in central Moscow.

Western Agencies Offer an Open Door for Russian Defectors

The CIA and MI6 are promising a trust Moscow lacks.

Analysis
Huw Dylan, David V. Gioe, Daniela Richterova
Igor Girkin sits inside a glass defendant’s cage during a hearing to consider a request on his pretrial arrest in Moscow.
Igor Girkin sits inside a glass defendant’s cage during a hearing to consider a request on his pretrial arrest in Moscow.

Putin’s Paranoia Has Turned on Russia’s Far Right

The security state is targeting nationalists like Igor Girkin. This article has an audio recording

Profile
Kristaps Andrejsons
Tourists lounge on a beach.
Tourists lounge on a beach.

Sanctions Haven’t Stopped Russians From Having Their Fun in the Sun

Boeing aircraft are still plying tourist routes from Moscow to Turkey, Egypt, and Thailand, and they’re refueling—and possibly getting repairs—en route.

Analysis
Elisabeth Braw
A ship is loaded with Ukrainian wheat at a port on the Black Sea.
A ship is loaded with Ukrainian wheat at a port on the Black Sea.

Russia Declares War on Wheat, Peas, and Barley

Moscow used to bang shoes to get attention. Now it blows up grain warehouses.

Report
Christina Lu, Amy Mackinnon
Vladimir Putin, then Russia's prime minister, looks at mirrors inside an X-ray telescope during his visit to the Russian Federal Nuclear Center.
Vladimir Putin, then Russia's prime minister, looks at mirrors inside an X-ray telescope during his visit to the Russian Federal Nuclear Center.

You See What You Want to See in Russia

Why didn’t Prigozhin’s mutiny against Putin change anyone’s mind?

Argument
Stephen M. Walt
U.S. President Joe Biden and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa walk to a working session at the G-7 summit in Cornwall in the United Kingdom.
U.S. President Joe Biden and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa walk to a working session at the G-7 summit in Cornwall in the United Kingdom.

Inside the Desperate Diplomatic Efforts to Salvage U.S.-South Africa Ties

South Africa’s support for Russia after its invasion of Ukraine has incensed some in Washington.

Exclusive
Robbie Gramer
A black and white print overlaid with a red star shows Russian Tsar Peter the Great holding up a glass in a toast after beheading one of the Streltsy rebels in front of his nobles. A headless figure rests on the ground and other people surround the tsar with lifted glasses.
A black and white print overlaid with a red star shows Russian Tsar Peter the Great holding up a glass in a toast after beheading one of the Streltsy rebels in front of his nobles. A headless figure rests on the ground and other people surround the tsar with lifted glasses.

Putin’s Fear of Strong Generals Is as Old as Russia Itself

Prigozhin’s rise and fall is the latest example of what happens when a ruler in Moscow fears the power of military underlings.

Essay
Simon Sebag Montefiore
A crowd of residents of Bangui, Central African Republic, demonstrate on the street on a cloudy day. In the foreground, a man in a yellow shirt waves a Russian flag. Next to him, another man bows his head with his hands clasped, possibly in prayer.
A crowd of residents of Bangui, Central African Republic, demonstrate on the street on a cloudy day. In the foreground, a man in a yellow shirt waves a Russian flag. Next to him, another man bows his head with his hands clasped, possibly in prayer.

What the Wagner Mutiny Means for China in Africa

When it comes to increasing its security footprint abroad, Beijing is facing a conundrum in reconciling Maoist doctrine with contemporary reality.

Analysis
Alessandro Arduino
A view of a spent nuclear fuel storage site at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.
A view of a spent nuclear fuel storage site at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.

How Worried Should We Be About Zaporizhzhia?

It’s not Chernobyl 2.0. But experts say Russian threats to cause a catastrophe shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.

Explainer
Ashley Ahn
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (not pictured) speak to the media on the second day of the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (not pictured) speak to the media on the second day of the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12.

Why Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Has Been Slower Than Expected

Former CIA analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor with the big-picture view on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Insider
Ravi Agrawal
Soldiers from the U.S. Army’s 331st Infantry Regiment take cover from German fire near the village of Périers in Normandy, France, in July 1944.
Soldiers from the U.S. Army’s 331st Infantry Regiment take cover from German fire near the village of Périers in Normandy, France, in July 1944.

Stop Comparing Ukraine to World War I

Normandy in 1944 is a much better historical analogy—and it counsels patience.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko speaks during a meeting with Commonwealth of Independent States officials in Minsk.
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko speaks during a meeting with Commonwealth of Independent States officials in Minsk.

Lukashenko Won the Putin-Prigozhin Fight

The dictator of Belarus recognized the mutiny in Russia as an opportunity to empower himself.

Analysis
Anchal Vohra
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gives a press conference during the NATO summit in Vilnius.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gives a press conference during the NATO summit in Vilnius.

Europe Can Flex Its Military Muscle to Protect Postwar Ukraine

Integrating Kyiv into the Joint Expeditionary Force would help deter Moscow.

Argument
Benjamin Tallis
A crew member prepares a grain analysis on board the ship Nord Vind.
A crew member prepares a grain analysis on board the ship Nord Vind.

Russia Is Holding Ukraine’s Farms Hostage

Moscow is weaponizing resources that aren’t even its own.

Report
Christina Lu
A tail section of a 300 mm rocket, which appears to contain cluster bombs, is embedded in the ground in eastern Ukraine.
A tail section of a 300 mm rocket, which appears to contain cluster bombs, is embedded in the ground in eastern Ukraine.

Cluster Bombs Are Terrible. Ukraine Still Needs Them.

I saw the impact of these weapons on my homeland—but Biden’s decision was right.

Argument
Oz Katerji
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