Russia’s War in Ukraine

News, analysis, and background on military campaigns, battlefield technology, and global diplomacy, negotiations, and sanctions.

A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.
A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.

Ukraine Is Hitting Russia Where It Hurts: Its Oil Refineries

Kyiv’s two-year offensive against Russian oil facilities has intensified, eating away at Moscow’s energy revenues.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers

Russia’s Next Opposition Will Not Be Liberal

Army corruption and mass death are breeding new dissent—deep inside Vladimir Putin’s loyal core.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.

Ukraine Needs More Drones

Tight cooperation with Beijing and Tehran is giving Moscow an edge on the critical weapons.

Analysis
Sam Skove
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.

Putin vs. the Press

You’d have to be fearless or a fanatic to persist in journalism in Russia. These women are both.

Review
Anastasia Edel
Putin gives an interview
Putin gives an interview

From Moldova to Africa, Russia’s Power Is Waning

The defeat of Moscow-friendly parties in the Moldovan election is just the latest of many setbacks.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky, Alexander J. Motyl
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech

Europe Is on Its Own With Russia Now

Donald Trump’s latest U-turn on Ukraine doesn’t change the naked truth for Europe.

Analysis
Christian Caryl

Battlefield Strategy

A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat
A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat

Why the White House Is Considering Tomahawks for Ukraine

The move makes sense for U.S. strategy, but it may cause heartburn for isolationist and Pacific-focused Pentagon leaders.

Analysis
Sam Skove
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.

The Mood on the Front Line, Three Years On

Ukrainian troops watch with anxiety as the United States moves closer to talks with Russia over the war.

Dispatch
Fabrice Deprez
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.

How Russia Is Escalating the Drone Arms Race

Routine strikes involve smaller, daily launches designed to keep steady pressure on Ukraine. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Yasir Atalan
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.

The ‘Paper Tiger’ Still Has Its Shadow Fleet

Trump says Russia is in economic trouble—but there's a loophole in the West's sanctions.

Argument
Petras Katinas

Wartime Diplomacy

From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.
From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

Trump Makes U-Turn on Ukraine Rhetoric

Trump says Ukraine can win back all of its territory.

Report
Sam Skove
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.

The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate

A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Kristi Raik
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.

An Emerging Trump Doctrine?

Success in the Middle East could be a template for a new approach to Russia’s war.

Argument
Adrian Karatnycky
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.

What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like

Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Nicholas Fenton, Maria Snegovaya

Regional Dynamics

U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.
U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine

Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Fabian Hoffmann
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania

Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter Russia

Leaders are afraid to tell voters what it will take to defend their continent. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Franz-Stefan Gady
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.

Anchors Away

Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

Argument
Elisabeth Braw
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.

The China-Russia Axis Is Getting Firmer, and It’s Built on Gas

Moscow pivoted to the east a decade ago, but it is now besmitten—or captive.

Analysis
Keith Johnson

Latest Stories

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks alongside U.S. President Joe Biden during a Ukraine Compact initiative on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C., on July 11.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks alongside U.S. President Joe Biden during a Ukraine Compact initiative on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C., on July 11.

Washington Is Out of Sync With Its Wartime Allies

The White House has been kept out of the loop on several major wartime decisions by Israel and Ukraine.

Situation Report
Jack Detsch, Amy Mackinnon
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives past a destroyed border checkpoint amid Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia, in the Sumy region, Ukraine, on Aug. 14.
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives past a destroyed border checkpoint amid Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia, in the Sumy region, Ukraine, on Aug. 14.

The Geopolitical Opportunity of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive

The incursion shows Washington the way to a smarter pivot to Asia.

Shadow Government
A. Wess Mitchell
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives past the remains of another in the Sumy region, Ukraine, amid the Ukrainian incursion into neighboring Kursk, Russia, on Aug. 13.
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives past the remains of another in the Sumy region, Ukraine, amid the Ukrainian incursion into neighboring Kursk, Russia, on Aug. 13.

Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Is a Turning Point in the War

The biggest impact is the destruction of Vladimir Putin’s narrative for victory.

Argument
Carl Bildt
Ukrainian servicemen in camouflage uniform ride an armored vehicle down a paved road beneath a cloudy sky. Directly next to the road is forest, pressing up against the soldiers in a wall of lush greenery.
Ukrainian servicemen in camouflage uniform ride an armored vehicle down a paved road beneath a cloudy sky. Directly next to the road is forest, pressing up against the soldiers in a wall of lush greenery.

What Is Ukraine’s Goal in Kursk?

Ukraine is making gains on Russian soil. But is Kyiv losing troops it can’t replace?

Report
Amy Mackinnon, Jack Detsch
U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov looks on during a ceremony to receive credentials from newly appointed foreign ambassadors at the Kremlin in Moscow.
U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov looks on during a ceremony to receive credentials from newly appointed foreign ambassadors at the Kremlin in Moscow.

Inside Putin’s Kremlin

John Sullivan, Washington’s former ambassador to Moscow, on how power works in Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Insider
Robbie Gramer
Russian tank in Kursk
Russian tank in Kursk

Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War

One aim of the surprise breakthrough may be for Kyiv to gain leverage in negotiations.

Analysis
Andreas Umland
Volunteers and Ukrainian military personnel attend a presentation about radio electronic warfare and intelligence systems made by the Ukrainian company Kvertus in Ukraine’s Lviv region on May 28.
Volunteers and Ukrainian military personnel attend a presentation about radio electronic warfare and intelligence systems made by the Ukrainian company Kvertus in Ukraine’s Lviv region on May 28.

Ukraine’s Pocket-Sized Answer to Russian Drones

Moscow has the upper hand in electronic warfare. Can grassroots-led efforts help Kyiv catch up?

Analysis
Fabrice Deprez
Black smoke feels the scene behind statues draped with the Ukrainina flag as a mob of protesters surrounds the statues.
Black smoke feels the scene behind statues draped with the Ukrainina flag as a mob of protesters surrounds the statues.

The Stubborn Legend of a Western ‘Coup’ in Ukraine

Ten years on, there is still confusion over what, exactly, transpired on the last days of the Maidan.

Excerpt
Adrian Karatnycky
A woman in a blue suit leans forward to look down the line of world leaders and dignitaries, many in suits.
A woman in a blue suit leans forward to look down the line of world leaders and dignitaries, many in suits.

Inside Ukraine’s Fight for Hearts and Minds

How Kyiv is working to win over the world beyond the West.

Argument
Nataliya Gumenyuk
A man in a T-shirt sits with his hands clasped for a portrait.
A man in a T-shirt sits with his hands clasped for a portrait.

Now Ukraine Is Also Recruiting Prisoners

Will a convict enlistment drive solve shortfalls on the frontline? This article has an audio recording

Report
Liz Cookman
An illustration shows the eyes of Vladimir Putin in a scope. Other details in the image show planes, stars and stripes, and surveillance cameras for a story about political assassinations.
An illustration shows the eyes of Vladimir Putin in a scope. Other details in the image show planes, stars and stripes, and surveillance cameras for a story about political assassinations.

Would the U.S. Consider Assassinating Putin?

When and why intelligence agencies target foreign leaders—and how it often backfires.

Analysis
Douglas London
Flags of NATO member countries flutter on poles arranged in a circle around an open plaza outside the NATO headquarters in Brussels.
Flags of NATO member countries flutter on poles arranged in a circle around an open plaza outside the NATO headquarters in Brussels.

NATO Grapples With a New Long Game Against Putin

Western allies must find a way to deal with a Moscow likely to remain hostile for the foreseeable future.

Analysis
Jack Detsch
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen straight on as he attends an Orthodox Easter service. Putin wears a black suit and dark tie and a serious expression. Colorful drapes or curtains hang slightly out of focus behind him.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen straight on as he attends an Orthodox Easter service. Putin wears a black suit and dark tie and a serious expression. Colorful drapes or curtains hang slightly out of focus behind him.

Russian Oil Is Still Paying for Putin’s War

After initial success, Western energy sanctions are stalling out.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
People in tiered levels of a convention center work at computers near a large banner that reads "Make American Great Once Again."
People in tiered levels of a convention center work at computers near a large banner that reads "Make American Great Once Again."

‘Our Last-Ditch Pitch’: Nervous U.S. Allies Put Boots on Ground at RNC

Europe’s diplomatic heavyweights are flocking to Milwaukee to court Trump’s party.

Report
Robbie Gramer
Ukrainian servicemen wearing camouflage fatigues proceed up the aisle of a church as they carry the coffin of one of their fallen countrymen. The walls of the church are decorated with ornate portraits and detailing showing Orthodox Christian saints and other figures.
Ukrainian servicemen wearing camouflage fatigues proceed up the aisle of a church as they carry the coffin of one of their fallen countrymen. The walls of the church are decorated with ornate portraits and detailing showing Orthodox Christian saints and other figures.

Whose Terms Will Set a Peace Deal in Ukraine?

The war is unlikely to end in total victory for either Moscow or Kyiv.

Analysis
Eugene Chausovsky
A man dressed in military camouflage fatigues holds a controller as he stands in front of a large robotic vehicle on a dirt road.
A man dressed in military camouflage fatigues holds a controller as he stands in front of a large robotic vehicle on a dirt road.

Ukraine Goes All-In on Ground Robots

The goal is to save more human lives.

Report
Jack Detsch
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