Middle East Crisis

News, analysis, and background on the Israel-Hamas war and regional conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

 

Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank.
Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank.

As the War in Gaza Winds Down, the West Bank Is a Flash Point

If Trump wants peace, he must block Israel’s annexationist policies. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Daniel C. Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller
Trump gestures with his arms out wide behind a sculpture that reads "PEACE 2025."
Trump gestures with his arms out wide behind a sculpture that reads "PEACE 2025."

Trump’s Foreign Policy Is Not as Successful as You Think

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that the Gaza deal proves Trump’s diplomatic chops.

Argument
Howard W. French
Palestinian youths celebrate the news of a cease-fire deal outside Shuhada al-Aqsa Hospital in the central Gaza Strip on Oct. 9.
Palestinian youths celebrate the news of a cease-fire deal outside Shuhada al-Aqsa Hospital in the central Gaza Strip on Oct. 9.

One Question Looming Over the Gaza Deal: Why Now?

An outline of the agreement had been on the table for months.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
A man is seen sitting in rubble in Gaza with destroyed buildings in the background.
A man is seen sitting in rubble in Gaza with destroyed buildings in the background.

Doctor in Gaza Says Cease-Fire Brings Hope but Challenges Remain

An MSF doctor talks about the dire needs in Gaza as the cease-fire begins.

Q&A
John Haltiwanger
People gather to protest while holding Israeli and U.S. flags and banners. One banner reads "President Trump, stop the war! The mothers of Israel are behind you."
People gather to protest while holding Israeli and U.S. flags and banners. One banner reads "President Trump, stop the war! The mothers of Israel are behind you."

Trump’s Approach Just Might End the War in Gaza, but the Next Stage Is Harder

Lasting agreements require sustained focus, not just theatrics. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Daniel B. Shapiro
Soldiers in combat gear are silhouetted as they stand along a fence overlooking a dirt training area.
Soldiers in combat gear are silhouetted as they stand along a fence overlooking a dirt training area.

How the U.S. Failure in Iraq Haunts Trump’s Gaza Plan

The American-led trusteeship will command no legitimacy among Palestinians.

Analysis
Marc Lynch

Israel-Hamas War

Trump holds up a finger as he speaks to the press, with microphones pointed at him.
Trump holds up a finger as he speaks to the press, with microphones pointed at him.

What We Can Learn From Trump’s Success in Gaza

In diplomacy, style now matters just as much as substance. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Suzanne Nossel
An Israeli flag hangs from a metal pole alongside loudspeakers on a beach, with dozens beachgoers playing and lounging on the edge of the sea in the background.
An Israeli flag hangs from a metal pole alongside loudspeakers on a beach, with dozens beachgoers playing and lounging on the edge of the sea in the background.

Two Ways Oct. 7 Changed Israel and One Way It Didn’t

The impact will be felt for years, even if Trump’s peace plan succeeds.

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
Dozens of people crowd together, many with their arms raised in celebration. Closest to the camera are two boys about 8 to 12 years old, both holding up their fingers in the V-shaped peace symbols as they beam at the camera.
Dozens of people crowd together, many with their arms raised in celebration. Closest to the camera are two boys about 8 to 12 years old, both holding up their fingers in the V-shaped peace symbols as they beam at the camera.

Can Palestinians Trust Donald Trump?

Only U.S. pressure will ensure that Israel honors the Gaza cease-fire.

Analysis
Omar H. Rahman
A road is clogged with a vast mass of people stretching to the horizon. On one side is the sea on the other is devastation from the war in Gaza.
A road is clogged with a vast mass of people stretching to the horizon. On one side is the sea on the other is devastation from the war in Gaza.

Two Years After Oct. 7, a Trail of What-Ifs

Decisions made early on set the path for a devastating war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Steven A. Cook

Iran-Israel Tensions

Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.
Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb

Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

Argument
James M. Acton
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.

Iran’s Collapse Could Cause a Nuclear Security Nightmare

Washington would struggle to secure dangerous materials, technologies, and expertise.

Argument
Eric Brewer, Scott Roecker
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.

Iran Is Islamism’s Last Lifeline in the Middle East

Without support from a weakened Tehran, the region’s extremist movements would wither.

Argument
Lina Khatib
Smoke rises over several buildings.
Smoke rises over several buildings.

The Next Israel-Iran War Is Coming

Both countries’ strategic calculus suggests it will be even more violent.

Argument
Trita Parsi

Israel and Hezbollah

Fire and tear gas smoke rise among a crowd in Beirut.
Fire and tear gas smoke rise among a crowd in Beirut.

Hezbollah Is Weak Enough for Lebanon to Finally Disarm It

The government and army are taking back their own country.

Argument
Oz Katerji
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.

Lebanon’s Demining Mission Faces Aid Uncertainty

Cuts to foreign assistance and a fragile cease-fire have made the urgent work more dangerous.

Dispatch
Anagha Subhash Nair
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.

Lebanon’s Success Depends on Sidelining Hezbollah

The new government in Beirut is the country’s best chance for reform in years—but support from Washington and Riyadh will be crucial.

Argument
Bilal Y. Saab
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.

Hezbollah Is Trying to Spin Loss as Victory

Assad’s fall and Israel’s offensive give Lebanese a chance to reclaim their country.

Argument
Oz Katerji

Regional Dynamics

President Donald J. Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at the Amiri Diwan, the official workplace of the emir, on May 14, 2025, in Doha, Qatar.
President Donald J. Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at the Amiri Diwan, the official workplace of the emir, on May 14, 2025, in Doha, Qatar.

America’s Accidental New Military Ally

The Trump administration has made an unprecedentedly sloppy security guarantee to Qatar.

Analysis
Bilal Y. Saab
Plume of smoke rise into a blue sky following an explosion from a row of low and midrise buildings, several with industrial smokestacks, several without. A road a the bottom of the image heads toward the town, with a car and a person on a motorbike heading in that direction.
Plume of smoke rise into a blue sky following an explosion from a row of low and midrise buildings, several with industrial smokestacks, several without. A road a the bottom of the image heads toward the town, with a car and a person on a motorbike heading in that direction.

Ankara’s New Syrian Headache

Toppling Assad didn’t solve Turkey’s problems—it made them worse.

Analysis
Gonul Tol
A man in military garb, including face covering and helmet, stands with a gun and wears a string of jasmine in front of a crowd holding flags.
A man in military garb, including face covering and helmet, stands with a gun and wears a string of jasmine in front of a crowd holding flags.

How Israel’s Strikes on the Houthis Will Change Yemen

For years, the group has relied on the perception that it is untouchable.

Analysis
Fatima Abo Alasrar
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands in Moscow on October 15.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands in Moscow on October 15.

Buying the Hatchet

How arms deals are helping Sharaa to make up with Moscow.

Analysis
Ahmad Sharawi

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)
Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)

Why the Oslo Peace Process Failed

And what it means for future negotiators.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.

The Palestinian Leader Who Survived the Death of Palestine

What would it mean for Hussein al-Sheikh to lead a people whose dream of independence is no longer alive? This article has an audio recording

Profile
Adam Rasgon, Aaron Boxerman
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.

How Will This War End? How Can the Next One be Prevented?

FP asks experts two questions about the fighting between Israelis and Palestinians.

Roundup
Zaha Hassan, Daniel C. Kurtzer, Omar M. Dajani, Diana Buttu, Peter R. Mansoor, Daniel Levy, Ehud Olmert, Eugene Kontorovich, Elliott Abrams
A child is silhouetted as he walks across a pile of rubble while carrying a flag.
A child is silhouetted as he walks across a pile of rubble while carrying a flag.

How Washington’s Israel-Palestine Peace Process Theology Failed Again and Again

Trump’s plan is just the latest example.

Review
Khaled Elgindy

Latest Stories

Two people watch the sunset in Jerusalem.
Two people watch the sunset in Jerusalem.

A Middle East Paradox

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has never been more dire—or riper for resolution.

Argument
El Hassan bin Talal, Tony Klug
Protesters raise placards and wave national flags during a demonstration in front of the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv.
Protesters raise placards and wave national flags during a demonstration in front of the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv.

Unsourced Allegations Feed Israel’s ‘Masada Complex’

The Israeli public is convinced the world is against it.

Argument
Simon Frankel Pratt
A Chinese journalist wearing a helmet and a bulletproof vest labeled "PRESS" speaks into a microphone while broadcasting for CCTV. In the background are fields and trees, and beyond that is the Gaza Strip, where columns of smoke from bombed buildings rise against a blue sky.
A Chinese journalist wearing a helmet and a bulletproof vest labeled "PRESS" speaks into a microphone while broadcasting for CCTV. In the background are fields and trees, and beyond that is the Gaza Strip, where columns of smoke from bombed buildings rise against a blue sky.

China’s Problem With the Genocide Case Against Israel

Beijing backs the Palestinians in Gaza but faces its own genocide accusations at home.

Analysis
Aaron Glasserman
An Israeli tank sits on a dusty hill along a fence in southern Israel. The damaged buildings of the Gaza Strip fill the landscape in the distance. Some buildings have been entirely leveled; others are barely standing, with their windows blown out and walls crumbling.
An Israeli tank sits on a dusty hill along a fence in southern Israel. The damaged buildings of the Gaza Strip fill the landscape in the distance. Some buildings have been entirely leveled; others are barely standing, with their windows blown out and walls crumbling.

Six Steps Israel Must Take to Win the War

Netanyahu needs to scale back war aims and compromise on core issues.

Analysis
Daniel Byman, Seth G. Jones
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greets U.S. President Joe Biden upon his arrival at Tel Aviv.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greets U.S. President Joe Biden upon his arrival at Tel Aviv.

Why an End to the War in Gaza Is Still Far Off

A major U.S. diplomatic push is unlikely this year.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud delivers a speech during a meeting on the situation in the Gaza Strip on the sidelines of a ceremony marking the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights at the United Nations offices in Geneva, on Dec. 12, 2023.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud delivers a speech during a meeting on the situation in the Gaza Strip on the sidelines of a ceremony marking the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights at the United Nations offices in Geneva, on Dec. 12, 2023.

What Gulf States Want in Gaza

Getting rid of Hamas could intensify regional rivalries for influence.

Analysis
Talal Mohammad
Three people wearing T-shirts and hoodies look up at a TV screen showing a news broadcast announcing the release of people from Hamas captivity. The walls of the kibbtz shelter where they sit are lined with historical photos.
Three people wearing T-shirts and hoodies look up at a TV screen showing a news broadcast announcing the release of people from Hamas captivity. The walls of the kibbtz shelter where they sit are lined with historical photos.

On Israeli TV News, Scenes of Palestinian Suffering Are Rare

The coverage could be contributing to a perception gap about the war in Gaza.

Analysis
Ben Lynfield
A protester sits cross-legged on the ground, wearing a keffiyeh, and flashes the victory sign. A fire rages behind the security gate of the U.S. embassy behind him. A person is seen behind him in the distance leaning over.
A protester sits cross-legged on the ground, wearing a keffiyeh, and flashes the victory sign. A fire rages behind the security gate of the U.S. embassy behind him. A person is seen behind him in the distance leaning over.

U.S. Middle East Policy Has Failed

The region is on fire, and Washington is to blame.

Argument
Jon Hoffman
A crowd of Hezbollah supporters march down a street, many of them waving their fists in the air. The three men in the foreground are open-mouthed as they chant, reaching back with their free hands to help support a coffin draped in green and yellow cloth carried by other demonstrators. A paper stuck to the front of the coffin shows a photo of the Hezbollah leader whose body it contains.
A crowd of Hezbollah supporters march down a street, many of them waving their fists in the air. The three men in the foreground are open-mouthed as they chant, reaching back with their free hands to help support a coffin draped in green and yellow cloth carried by other demonstrators. A paper stuck to the front of the coffin shows a photo of the Hezbollah leader whose body it contains.

Israel and Hezbollah Could Stumble Into a War Neither Wants

A war on Israel’s northern border could be far deadlier than the one in Gaza.

Situation Report
Robbie Gramer
An Israeli army soldier sits by a machine gun in the upper Galilee region of northern Israel.
An Israeli army soldier sits by a machine gun in the upper Galilee region of northern Israel.

Inside Biden’s Push to Head Off an Israel-Hezbollah War

Lebanon’s government seems eager for diplomacy, but the Iran-backed militant group may get the final say.

Report
Robbie Gramer
Israeli troops leave the Gaza Strip as seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border in southern Israel.
Israeli troops leave the Gaza Strip as seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border in southern Israel.

5 Reasons the Israel-Palestine Conflict Won’t End Anytime Soon

Extremists, lobbyists, meddling outsiders, and deeper structural problems mean that the issue is likely to remain unresolved.

Argument
Stephen M. Walt
An Israeli soldier in camouflage fatigues, with a rifle and helmet, walks out of the round entrance to a tunnel in Gaza. The diameter of the entrance is about as wide as the man is tall, and the sandy ground beneath his feet is covered in footprints and rubble and scattered with metal grates and other scrap material.
An Israeli soldier in camouflage fatigues, with a rifle and helmet, walks out of the round entrance to a tunnel in Gaza. The diameter of the entrance is about as wide as the man is tall, and the sandy ground beneath his feet is covered in footprints and rubble and scattered with metal grates and other scrap material.

Is Israel Winning the War on the Tunnels in Gaza?

Destroying Hamas’s underground network has been slow and cumbersome.

Analysis
Daphné Richemond-Barak
As two out of focus Palestinian flags wave in the foreground, in the background, a protester stands on the head of a bronze statue of Neptune on top of a fountain on a cloudy day. The protester waves another Palestinian flag and shouts as he leans back agains the statue's trident. Other demonstrators have climbed to rest on lower parts of the statue.
As two out of focus Palestinian flags wave in the foreground, in the background, a protester stands on the head of a bronze statue of Neptune on top of a fountain on a cloudy day. The protester waves another Palestinian flag and shouts as he leans back agains the statue's trident. Other demonstrators have climbed to rest on lower parts of the statue.

How the Gaza War Could Shape Global Politics in 2024

From India to Germany to the United States, debate over the war could have real electoral consequences. This article has an audio recording

Explainer
Amy Mackinnon
A mortar round flies past an Israeli flag waving atop an Israeli armored vehicle from a position along the border in southern Israel.
A mortar round flies past an Israeli flag waving atop an Israeli armored vehicle from a position along the border in southern Israel.

The 6 Lessons Israel Should Not Learn From Hamas’s Attack

Drawing the wrong conclusions from Oct. 7 would make the region less secure.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
Pro-Palestinian demonstrators listen to Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim speak during a rally at the Bukit Jalil indoor stadium in Kuala Lumpu.
Pro-Palestinian demonstrators listen to Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim speak during a rally at the Bukit Jalil indoor stadium in Kuala Lumpu.

Gaza Is a Burning Topic for Southeast Asia’s Domestic Politics

A distant war has powerful resonance in a region often divided by faith.

Analysis
Joseph Rachman
A soldier fighting for Ukraine stands in front of a destroyed monastery in Dolyna, Ukraine.
A soldier fighting for Ukraine stands in front of a destroyed monastery in Dolyna, Ukraine.

FP Live Looks Back at 2023

Stephen Walt explains why countries are accusing America of hypocrisy.

Q&A
Ravi Agrawal
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