Middle East Crisis

News, analysis, and background on the Israel-Hamas war and regional conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

A woman walks past a billboard, put up by the Coalition for Regional Security, displayed in Tel Aviv on June 26.
A woman walks past a billboard, put up by the Coalition for Regional Security, displayed in Tel Aviv on June 26.

Meet the New Middle East, Same as the Old Middle East

Everything has changed in the region, and nothing is different.

Argument
Stephen M. Walt
U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a dinner in the White House in Washington, DC on July 7.
U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a dinner in the White House in Washington, DC on July 7.

Only Trump Can Save Israel from Its Own Government

Netanyahu’s plan to seize Gaza is a catastrophe for all. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Philip H. Gordon
Samuel Zbogar, the head of the Slovenian mission to the United Nations Security Council, speaks to the press alongside other U.N. representatives ahead of a Security Council emergency meeting on Gaza at the U.N. headquarters in New York on Aug. 10.
Samuel Zbogar, the head of the Slovenian mission to the United Nations Security Council, speaks to the press alongside other U.N. representatives ahead of a Security Council emergency meeting on Gaza at the U.N. headquarters in New York on Aug. 10.

What Was the Tipping Point on Gaza?

After almost two years of war, Israel is feeling the growing weight of governmental opprobrium.

Analysis
Emma Ashford
Smoke rises over several buildings.
Smoke rises over several buildings.

The Next Israel-Iran War Is Coming

Both countries’ strategic calculus suggests it will be even more violent.

Argument
Trita Parsi
A view of the destruction at Evin Prison in Tehran, Iran, after it was hit by an Israeli airstrike on June 23, viewed on July 1.
A view of the destruction at Evin Prison in Tehran, Iran, after it was hit by an Israeli airstrike on June 23, viewed on July 1.

What the War Changed Inside Iran

The regime has been pushed to the edge of strategic pivot.

Analysis
Alex Vatanka
Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.
Men work inside an uranium conversion facility in Iran.

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb

Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

Argument
James M. Acton

Israel-Hamas War

Palestinians children push to receive a hot meal at a charity kitchen in the Mawasi area of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on July 22.
Palestinians children push to receive a hot meal at a charity kitchen in the Mawasi area of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on July 22.

Could Images of the Famine in Gaza Change Israeli Public Opinion?

A newscast showing starving children prompted sympathy—and criticism.

Analysis
David E. Rosenberg
A heavily damaged building can be seen with a Syria flag nearby.
A heavily damaged building can be seen with a Syria flag nearby.

Israel Isn’t a Hegemon Yet, But It’s Now a Revisionist Power

Netanyahu is seeking to remake the Middle East by force.

Argument
Rob Geist Pinfold
Biden walks between massive white columns outside of the White House. He wears a dark suit and a blue tie, and his head is tilted down toward the ground.
Biden walks between massive white columns outside of the White House. He wears a dark suit and a blue tie, and his head is tilted down toward the ground.

Biden’s Team Lied About Gaza. It’s Time to Hold Them Accountable.

Impunity for abetting war crimes weakens U.S. democracy.

Shadow Government
Matthew Duss
Four people stand while holding a banner that reads Gaza: Action Not Words. On the banner the names of thousands of children who have died as a result of the war.
Four people stand while holding a banner that reads Gaza: Action Not Words. On the banner the names of thousands of children who have died as a result of the war.

Why Recognizing Palestine Is Meaningless or Even Harmful

Recent announcements by France, Britain, and Canada are mostly performative.

Argument
Steven A. Cook

Iran-Israel Tensions

A U.S. B-2 "Spirit" stealth bomber flies over Pasadena, California, on Jan. 1.
A U.S. B-2 "Spirit" stealth bomber flies over Pasadena, California, on Jan. 1.

Strikes on Iran Show the Force, and Limits, of Airpower

Technical dominance can’t compel regime change. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Robert Farley
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.
Participants place radiation signs during a simulated nuclear emergency drill in Tehran on November 5, 2015.

Iran’s Collapse Could Cause a Nuclear Security Nightmare

Washington would struggle to secure dangerous materials, technologies, and expertise.

Argument
Eric Brewer, Scott Roecker
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.
The late Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaks during a memorial service beneath portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hasssan Nasrallah, Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine, at the Grand Mosque in Tehran on Feb. 23.

Iran Is Islamism’s Last Lifeline in the Middle East

Without support from a weakened Tehran, the region’s extremist movements would wither.

Argument
Lina Khatib
A man rides a horse next to the remains of an Iranian missile near the Israeli settlement of Tekoa in the occupied West Bank, on June 29.
A man rides a horse next to the remains of an Iranian missile near the Israeli settlement of Tekoa in the occupied West Bank, on June 29.

Iran and the Logic of Limited Wars

No one wants a long war, and doing nothing was no longer an option.

Argument
Raphael S. Cohen

Israel and Hezbollah

Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.
Mourners surround the flag-draped coffins of Hezbollah fighters who were killed in the recent war with Israel, during a funeral procession in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Selm on Dec. 6.

Hezbollah Is Trying to Spin Loss as Victory

Assad’s fall and Israel’s offensive give Lebanese a chance to reclaim their country.

Argument
Oz Katerji
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.
A man in a vest holds a cable attached to a spool on the ground. Behind him are shrubs and a blue sky.

Lebanon’s Demining Mission Faces Aid Uncertainty

Cuts to foreign assistance and a fragile cease-fire have made the urgent work more dangerous.

Dispatch
Anagha Subhash Nair
A Lebanese Army soldier stands guard in the southern Lebanese town of Naqura after Israel's withdrawal from the area, on Jan. 7.
A Lebanese Army soldier stands guard in the southern Lebanese town of Naqura after Israel's withdrawal from the area, on Jan. 7.

Surprisingly, the Lebanon-Israel Cease-Fire Is Holding

Notwithstanding continued exchanges, the agreement is functioning and appears durable.

Analysis
David Schenker
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.
Lebanese celebrate the nomination of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut, on Jan. 13.

Lebanon’s Success Depends on Sidelining Hezbollah

The new government in Beirut is the country’s best chance for reform in years—but support from Washington and Riyadh will be crucial.

Argument
Bilal Y. Saab

Global Reactions

Flags of the United Arab Emirates and Israel are displayed.
Flags of the United Arab Emirates and Israel are displayed.

Can a ‘New’ Middle East Survive the ‘Old’?

To achieve regional progress, Arab leaders need to rethink the importance of resolving the Palestine question once and for all.

Argument
Kabir Taneja
Houthi troops holding weapons stand in front of buildings during an anti-Israel, anti-U.S. rally in Sanaa, Yemen, on Jan. 19.
Houthi troops holding weapons stand in front of buildings during an anti-Israel, anti-U.S. rally in Sanaa, Yemen, on Jan. 19.

The Middle East’s Next Aftershocks

The Trump administration will find it hard to disengage from a region still being reshaped by the effects of Oct. 7.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump participate in a joint news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, D.C.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump participate in a joint news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, D.C.

Trump Has Leverage With Syria’s Neighbors—Here’s How He Should Use It

U.S. pressure on Israel and Turkey could help stabilize Syria. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Steven A. Cook
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian shakes hands with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan, in Tehran.
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian shakes hands with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan, in Tehran.

Can the Gulf’s Iran Policy Survive the War?

Israel and the Gulf have rival visions for Iran’s role in the region. Now Washington has to pick one.

Analysis
Mona Yacoubian

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)
Pres. Bill Clinton (C) w. (L-R) Mideast peaceniks King Hussein, PM Rabin, PLO chmn. Arafat & Pres. Mubarak in WH Rose Garden for Israeli-Palestinian accord signing. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/Getty Images)

Why the Oslo Peace Process Failed

And what it means for future negotiators.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.
Hussein al-Sheikh attends the funeral of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.

The Palestinian Leader Who Survived the Death of Palestine

What would it mean for Hussein al-Sheikh to lead a people whose dream of independence is no longer alive? This article has an audio recording

Profile
Adam Rasgon, Aaron Boxerman
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.
A Palestinian is seen from behind as they look outside through a large broken window. Some shards of fractured glass remain in the frame, but the rest of the opening reveals dark smoke billowing from a dense street of buildings in Gaza City. The sky is otherwise light but hazy.

How Will This War End? How Can the Next One be Prevented?

FP asks experts two questions about the fighting between Israelis and Palestinians.

Roundup
Zaha Hassan, Daniel C. Kurtzer, Omar M. Dajani, Diana Buttu, Peter R. Mansoor, Daniel Levy, Ehud Olmert, Eugene Kontorovich, Elliott Abrams
A Palestinian man carries his child to cross a roadblock in the West Bank city of Hebron in 2003. Rubble fills the land he walks across and barbed wire coils in front of him. A woman with a head covering follows behind them.
A Palestinian man carries his child to cross a roadblock in the West Bank city of Hebron in 2003. Rubble fills the land he walks across and barbed wire coils in front of him. A woman with a head covering follows behind them.

All the Palestinians Got From Oslo Was KFC

Thirty years of the peace process has left us with less land and fewer rights.

Essay
Dalia Hatuqa

Latest Stories

Displaced Palestinians gather amid tents flooded by heavy rain at a makeshift camp in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 27.
Displaced Palestinians gather amid tents flooded by heavy rain at a makeshift camp in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 27.

The U.S. Must Support Gaza Before Winter

Seasonal rains and flooding portend further humanitarian catastrophe.

Argument
Sarah E. Parkinson, Feroze Sidhwa
Biden looks pensive as he sits in front of Israeli and U.S. flags.
Biden looks pensive as he sits in front of Israeli and U.S. flags.

What Biden Must Do to Help Gaza Now

The outgoing administration has one last chance to do the right thing.

Argument
Stacy Gilbert
Iranians walk and drive past a billboard with an image depicting a missile attack over Israel in Tehran on Oct. 3.
Iranians walk and drive past a billboard with an image depicting a missile attack over Israel in Tehran on Oct. 3.

Will Tehran Make a Dash for the Bomb?

With other components of its defense strategy in tatters, attention turns to Iran’s nuclear threshold capability.

Analysis
Sina Azodi
A view of Tehran's skyline at dawn after several explosions were heard in the city.
A view of Tehran's skyline at dawn after several explosions were heard in the city.

What Israel’s Attack on Iran Means for the Region

This week’s strikes could draw a line in the sand—or set the stage for a bigger offensive.

Analysis
Rishi Iyengar
A crowd of Israeli protesters gathers on a street in Tel Aviv at night. A woman close to the front holds up a handwritten sign that says "Now end the Sin-War. Bring them home." Others gathered around wave Israeli flags or signs printed in Hebrew.
A crowd of Israeli protesters gathers on a street in Tel Aviv at night. A woman close to the front holds up a handwritten sign that says "Now end the Sin-War. Bring them home." Others gathered around wave Israeli flags or signs printed in Hebrew.

Sinwar’s Death Gives Bibi a Boost—but Not Much More

A cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas remains far off.

Analysis
Daniel C. Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller
Hamas leader Sinwar
Hamas leader Sinwar

Why Sinwar’s Death Matters

The Hamas leader’s demise closes the first act of the war and sets up what comes next.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
Yahya Sinwar looks over his shoulder while standing in a crowd of people at a rally in a square or street in Gaza. He makes a "V" for victory sign with the fingers of one raised hand. A man in camouflage stands next to him. Both of them and many of the rally attendees wear green scarves.
Yahya Sinwar looks over his shoulder while standing in a crowd of people at a rally in a square or street in Gaza. He makes a "V" for victory sign with the fingers of one raised hand. A man in camouflage stands next to him. Both of them and many of the rally attendees wear green scarves.

Israel’s Killing of Yahya Sinwar Is Not a Turning Point

While the Hamas leader’s death represents a political victory for Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel is no closer to a realistic plan for governing Gaza.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington.
U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington.

Biden’s ‘Bear Hug’ of Israel Is a Failure

The administration’s unwavering support has brought the Middle East to the brink of all-out war.

Analysis
Khaled Elgindy
A participant holds an anti-Israel sign during a rally celebrating an Iranian missile attack on Israel in Palestine Square in Tehran on Oct. 1.
A participant holds an anti-Israel sign during a rally celebrating an Iranian missile attack on Israel in Palestine Square in Tehran on Oct. 1.

Iran’s Terrible, Horrible, Very Bad Year

Tehran was in a stronger strategic position before its proxies plunged the region into war.

Analysis
Raphael S. Cohen
A group of Jewish settlers under the protection of Israeli soldiers raid the Old City area of Hebron.
A group of Jewish settlers under the protection of Israeli soldiers raid the Old City area of Hebron.

How Settler Violence Serves Israel’s Interests

Attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank have surged since Oct. 7, 2023.

Analysis
Yagil Levy
People stand on top of the remains of an Iranian missile in the Negev desert in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.
People stand on top of the remains of an Iranian missile in the Negev desert in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.

What Is Iran Trying to Prove?

Leaders in Tehran believe that Washington will restrain Israel in order to prevent a regional conflagration.

Analysis
Vali Nasr
Soldiers in combat gear are silhouetted against a smoky, hazy landscape with buildings in the background.
Soldiers in combat gear are silhouetted against a smoky, hazy landscape with buildings in the background.

More Wars, a Failed State, and a Step Back by the United States

What to expect after the war in Gaza ends.

Analysis
Daniel Byman
An illustration shows two missiles arcing across the sky above a lone figure amid a scene of destruction with the shells of buildings on either side.
An illustration shows two missiles arcing across the sky above a lone figure amid a scene of destruction with the shells of buildings on either side.

Is the Israel-Hamas War Closer to Its Beginning or Its End?

A year on, FP asks experts to assess the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.

Analysis
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, M.L. deRaismes Combes, Dana El Kurd, Marwan Muasher, John Nagl, Amit Segal, Hagar Shezaf
Columns of pale gray smoke rise from a building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike, leveled to the ground now. Intact midrise buildings loom beyond the plumes of smoke, and a closer, lower building is silhouetted as a black shadow against the smoke.
Columns of pale gray smoke rise from a building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike, leveled to the ground now. Intact midrise buildings loom beyond the plumes of smoke, and a closer, lower building is silhouetted as a black shadow against the smoke.

The U.N. Resolution at the Heart of the Israel-Lebanon Conflict

U.N. Resolution 1701 was a great idea—if only Lebanon had been able to curb Hezbollah.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu smile as they stand side-by-side in the Oval Office in front of framed photos of former presidents, including Abraham Lincoln. Both men wear dark suits and ties.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu smile as they stand side-by-side in the Oval Office in front of framed photos of former presidents, including Abraham Lincoln. Both men wear dark suits and ties.

Don’t Blame Biden for the Yearlong War in Gaza

Yes, the United States has leverage—but not like you think.

Analysis
Aaron David Miller, Lauren Morganbesser
Hezbollah fighters line up at the funerals of commanders Ibrahim Aqil and Mahmoud Hamad, both killed in an Israeli airstrike on Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, on Sept. 22.
Hezbollah fighters line up at the funerals of commanders Ibrahim Aqil and Mahmoud Hamad, both killed in an Israeli airstrike on Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, on Sept. 22.

Hezbollah Is Still Capable of Getting Revenge on Israel

Even after taking damage, the group still has unconventional military means of its own.

Analysis
Anchal Vohra
Load More Stories
Loading graphics