Russia’s War in Ukraine

News, analysis, and background on military campaigns, battlefield technology, and global diplomacy, negotiations, and sanctions.

A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.
A fiery orange and black explosion behind a gray razor wire fence.

Ukraine Is Hitting Russia Where It Hurts: Its Oil Refineries

Kyiv’s two-year offensive against Russian oil facilities has intensified, eating away at Moscow’s energy revenues.

Analysis
Keith Johnson
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers
Russian flags fly above the graves of Russian soldiers

Russia’s Next Opposition Will Not Be Liberal

Army corruption and mass death are breeding new dissent—deep inside Vladimir Putin’s loyal core.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.
A man holds a drone in Ukraine.

Ukraine Needs More Drones

Tight cooperation with Beijing and Tehran is giving Moscow an edge on the critical weapons.

Analysis
Sam Skove
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.
A woman in a red face mask and a coat over a red hoodie stands on a sidewalk, holding a laptop and speaking on her phone. Cars drive past behind her, with a suitcase and an international airport visible in the background.

Putin vs. the Press

You’d have to be fearless or a fanatic to persist in journalism in Russia. These women are both.

Review
Anastasia Edel
Putin gives an interview
Putin gives an interview

From Moldova to Africa, Russia’s Power Is Waning

The defeat of Moscow-friendly parties in the Moldovan election is just the latest of many setbacks.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky, Alexander J. Motyl
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech
Donald Trump leaves UNGA following his speech

Europe Is on Its Own With Russia Now

Donald Trump’s latest U-turn on Ukraine doesn’t change the naked truth for Europe.

Analysis
Christian Caryl

Battlefield Strategy

A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat
A Tomahawk missile launches from a boat

Why the White House Is Considering Tomahawks for Ukraine

The move makes sense for U.S. strategy, but it may cause heartburn for isolationist and Pacific-focused Pentagon leaders.

Analysis
Sam Skove
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.
Soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade in a house where they are staying when not on the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine.

The Mood on the Front Line, Three Years On

Ukrainian troops watch with anxiety as the United States moves closer to talks with Russia over the war.

Dispatch
Fabrice Deprez
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.
Drones fly above grass in an open field dotted with trees and small sheds.

How Russia Is Escalating the Drone Arms Race

Routine strikes involve smaller, daily launches designed to keep steady pressure on Ukraine. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Yasir Atalan
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.
The oil tanker Eagle S is seen anchored near the Kilpilahti port in Porvoo, on the Gulf of Finland, on Jan. 7.

The ‘Paper Tiger’ Still Has Its Shadow Fleet

Trump says Russia is in economic trouble—but there's a loophole in the West's sanctions.

Argument
Petras Katinas

Wartime Diplomacy

From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.
From left, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

Trump Makes U-Turn on Ukraine Rhetoric

Trump says Ukraine can win back all of its territory.

Report
Sam Skove
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.
A Finnish defender is seen near the front during the Finnish-Soviet Winter War in early 1940.

The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate

A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Kristi Raik
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.
U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S. strikes on Iran with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth standing alongside, at the White House in Washington on June 21.

An Emerging Trump Doctrine?

Success in the Middle East could be a template for a new approach to Russia’s war.

Argument
Adrian Karatnycky
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.
Workers construct an outdoor ice skating rink in Red Square in downtown Moscow on Nov. 9, 2021.

What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like

Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Nicholas Fenton, Maria Snegovaya

Regional Dynamics

U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.
U.S. Marines take part in the international military exercise Cold Response 22 near Sandstrand in northern Norway on March 21, 2022.

A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine

Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Fabian Hoffmann
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania
Macron, Starmer, and Merz talk at a summit in Tirana, Albania

Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter Russia

Leaders are afraid to tell voters what it will take to defend their continent. This article has an audio recording

Analysis
Franz-Stefan Gady
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.
The oil tanker Eagle S next to Finnish border guard ship Uisko and tugboat Ukko in the Gulf of Finland on December 28, 2024.

Anchors Away

Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.

Argument
Elisabeth Braw
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.
A photo of two white tanks near a yellow crane. A blue-and-white tanker carrying liquified natural gas is docked nearby in snow and sea ice. White smoke billows out of its smokestack.

The China-Russia Axis Is Getting Firmer, and It’s Built on Gas

Moscow pivoted to the east a decade ago, but it is now besmitten—or captive.

Analysis
Keith Johnson

Latest Stories

A sign in the shape of the map of Ukraine in the blue and yellow colors of the flag with the inscription "Heroes do not die" in Cyrillic rests on the grave of a fallen soldier at Lychakiv cemetery in Lviv, Ukraine. A cross made of sticks and greenery and lanterns frame the scene.
A sign in the shape of the map of Ukraine in the blue and yellow colors of the flag with the inscription "Heroes do not die" in Cyrillic rests on the grave of a fallen soldier at Lychakiv cemetery in Lviv, Ukraine. A cross made of sticks and greenery and lanterns frame the scene.

The Washington Whiz Kids Mapping the War in Ukraine

How the Institute For the Study of War became the media’s go-to source for tracking the Russian invasion.

Report
Amy Mackinnon
Bouquets of red roses surround a framed portrait of Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. The items are placed atop Prigozhin's grave.
Bouquets of red roses surround a framed portrait of Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. The items are placed atop Prigozhin's grave.

Prigozhin’s Assassination Was Business, Not Revenge

The Wagner chief broke the deal struck with Putin for his survival.

Argument
Dmitri Alperovitch
A man suspected to be a Russian collaborator is seen facing away through a slightly open doorway with his hands cuffed behind his back during an operation in Ukraine. He is inside a home with ornate wallpaper and wall hangings, including a calendar with a pinup girl and a framed image of Jesus.
A man suspected to be a Russian collaborator is seen facing away through a slightly open doorway with his hands cuffed behind his back during an operation in Ukraine. He is inside a home with ornate wallpaper and wall hangings, including a calendar with a pinup girl and a framed image of Jesus.

Ukraine’s Long and Sordid History of Treason

For money or out of conviction, some Ukrainians are helping Russia kill their compatriots.

Analysis
Adrian Karatnycky
Russian Education Minister Sergei Kravtsov (right), wearing a suit and tie, holds a new history book for high school students at a news conference in Moscow. Behind him out of focus are two other suited men, one with his hand to his face.
Russian Education Minister Sergei Kravtsov (right), wearing a suit and tie, holds a new history book for high school students at a news conference in Moscow. Behind him out of focus are two other suited men, one with his hand to his face.

New Russian Schoolbooks Preach Hatred of Ukraine and the West

The Kremlin has taken indoctrination and historical falsification to a new level.

Analysis
Alexey Kovalev
A billboard promoting contract army service is seen in front of the Wagner Group center in St. Petersburg.
A billboard promoting contract army service is seen in front of the Wagner Group center in St. Petersburg.

New Russian Law Takes Corporate Hostages

Western companies’ assets are under threat.

Argument
Elisabeth Braw
A Russian soldier patrols the Mariupol drama theater, bombed by Russia when it housed civilian refugees, in Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 12, 2022.
A Russian soldier patrols the Mariupol drama theater, bombed by Russia when it housed civilian refugees, in Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 12, 2022.

Why We Should Not Bet on a Peaceful Russia

The idea that a deal with Moscow will bring peace in Ukraine is based on very flimsy assumptions.

Argument
Alexander J. Motyl
A member of the private mercenary Wagner Group pays tribute to Yevgeny Prigozhin after his plane crashed at the makeshift memorial in front of the Wagner office in Novosibirsk, Russia.
A member of the private mercenary Wagner Group pays tribute to Yevgeny Prigozhin after his plane crashed at the makeshift memorial in front of the Wagner office in Novosibirsk, Russia.

What’s Next for the Wagner Group?

The infamous Russian mercenary group finds itself without a leader, but still with a mission.

Situation Report
Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch
A Wagner fighter pays tribute to Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin at a makeshift memorial in Rostov-on-Don, Russia.
A Wagner fighter pays tribute to Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin at a makeshift memorial in Rostov-on-Don, Russia.

A Dead Prigozhin Won’t Stop Tales of a Weak Putin

Interpretations of the Wagner saga are more imaginative than analytical. This article has an audio recording

Argument
Mark Lawrence Schrad
A screen grab captured from a video shared online shows Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian private security company Wagner Group, in an unspecified location in Africa.
A screen grab captured from a video shared online shows Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian private security company Wagner Group, in an unspecified location in Africa.

Russia’s Murderous Mercenary Prigozhin Is Dead

The Wagner chief’s death in a plane crash was confirmed by Russia’s aviation agency.

Report
Amy Mackinnon, Jack Detsch
A picture taken on July 17 shows a Russian warship sailing near the Kerch Bridge, linking the Russian mainland to Crimea, following an attack claimed by Ukrainian forces.
A picture taken on July 17 shows a Russian warship sailing near the Kerch Bridge, linking the Russian mainland to Crimea, following an attack claimed by Ukrainian forces.

Russia’s Illegal Bridges Have Ukrainian Crosshairs on Them

Kyiv is determined to destroy a major supply line into occupied Crimea.

Argument
Oz Katerji
A woman holding a Ukrainian flag speaks during a pro-Ukraine rally in Brussels.
A woman holding a Ukrainian flag speaks during a pro-Ukraine rally in Brussels.

Ukraine’s Appeals to Europe Can Alienate Others

Rhetoric about “European civilization” clashes with anti-colonial ideals.

Argument
Emily Couch, Kimberly St. Julian-Varnon
A visitor views an exhibit of cluster bomb remnants at the Cooperative Orthotic and Prosthetic Enterprise Visitor Center in Vientiane, Laos, on July 11.
A visitor views an exhibit of cluster bomb remnants at the Cooperative Orthotic and Prosthetic Enterprise Visitor Center in Vientiane, Laos, on July 11.

Ukraine Can Learn From Southeast Asia

Cambodia and Laos have direct experience with the aftermath of U.S. cluster bombs, now deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Analysis
Verena Hölzl
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko points while speaking to foreign media. Lukashenko is a large man with white hair and a mustache and wears a dark blue suit as he sits in a chair in front of a Belarusian flag.
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko points while speaking to foreign media. Lukashenko is a large man with white hair and a mustache and wears a dark blue suit as he sits in a chair in front of a Belarusian flag.

Belarus Is Abducting Ukrainian Children in Plain Sight

A trail of evidence on social networks and state media detail Minsk’s role in a potential war crime

Report
Amy Mackinnon
A Ukrainian marine from the 37th Brigade walks past an M109 155 mm self-propelled howitzer at a position in the Donetsk region on July 10, 2023.
A Ukrainian marine from the 37th Brigade walks past an M109 155 mm self-propelled howitzer at a position in the Donetsk region on July 10, 2023.

Biden Scrounges Up More U.S. Weapons for Ukraine

Too little, too late?

Situation Report
Jack Detsch
A man and woman stand in front of a large outdoor wall installation featuring silver-colored plaques inscribed with names.
A man and woman stand in front of a large outdoor wall installation featuring silver-colored plaques inscribed with names.

Russia Is Attempting Genocide in Ukraine

Other states have a legal and moral duty to stop Moscow.

Argument
Azeem Ibrahim
Platoon commanders of Ukraine's National Guard take part in a military training in the Kharkiv region on July 26.
Platoon commanders of Ukraine's National Guard take part in a military training in the Kharkiv region on July 26.

Ukraine Brings the Pain

Kyiv’s forces are finally starting to breach the dragon’s teeth.

Situation Report
Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer
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