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How Trump Shaped 2025
FP Live looks back at the year’s geopolitical twists and turns.
Will Trump Order an Attack on Venezuela?
Former U.S. ambassador: “This was never a counternarcotics mission. This has always been a regime change mission.”
The Geopolitics of Sovereign Wealth Funds
Countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are investing capital right when the world values geopolitical swing states.
France Didn’t Lose the Sahel—Everyone Did
Blaming Paris for Mali’s problems won’t solve them. A collective European response is needed.
Vietnam Tries to Escape the U.S.-China Trap
Hanoi has been quietly expanding partnerships beyond the Indo-Pacific.
Why Richard Nixon Killed National Child Care
The president’s veto had to do with mounting opposition to his policy of detente.
What the 2025 National Security Strategy Means for Asia
The MAGA revolution in U.S. foreign policy brings good news and bad.
Trump’s New Corollary
The President’s invocation of the Monroe Doctrine is rhetorically satisfying but carries real risks.
Mexican Climate Activists’ Ambitions Are Crumbling
President Claudia Sheinbaum has eroded a key legal tool used to ensure environmental justice.
Hillary Clinton: ‘Congress Has Abdicated Its Responsibility’
The former U.S. secretary of state on Trump’s foreign policy, Americans’ shifting views on Israel, and the fight for women’s rights.
Trump’s Pivot to Pakistan
The South Asian nation has deployed a combination of flattery and strategy to get Washington on its side.
Biden’s Long Shadow Over Ukraine
His administration failed Ukraine at almost every turn, shaping the war to this day.
When the Democratic Recession Comes Home
Michael McFaul wants more democracy promotion. Is now the time?
Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship.
Trump Has Many Options if the Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs
A weak Congress means a deep toolbox for the president.
Trump Is Threatening His Own World Cup
Ongoing immigration raids risk the success of the global sporting event.
An AI Bust May Not Be All Bad News
The boom makes it hard for competitors to step away from a treadmill of continuous acceleration.
Silicon Valley Wants Disaster Bunkers. Norway Wants ‘Preparedness Friends.’
Norwegians are pioneering better models of catastrophe preparation.
Africa Was the Biggest Loser of China’s COP30 Triumph
Decisions about the continent’s future are being made in foreign capitals.
The U.S. Can’t Talk to Its Neighbors Anymore
What the postponement of the Summit of the Americas reveals about regional relations.
The New Wealth of Nations
How instrumental capital is reshaping the world.
Mali’s Junta Is the Architect of Its Own Disasters
Blaming foreign intervention is easy—but mistaken.
Ukraine Can Only Rely on Itself
In any peace deal with Russia, security guarantees from outsiders won't guarantee much.
Netanyahu Is Still Following the Same Failed Gaza Strategy
Two years of war have brought tactical changes and immense suffering, but the political status quo endures.
What Is the Filibuster Good for?
A term originally used to describe pirates is now synonymous with U.S. congressional dysfunction.
The Minerals That Drive Trump’s Global Agenda
From Canada to Pakistan, an interest in critical minerals is a through line in the White House’s foreign policy.
Why China Didn’t Do a ‘Kissinger’ to Split Europe From America
Europe would have given almost anything for peace, but Beijing had a different calculus.
India’s Strategic Autonomy Is Now Reading as Aloof
Why 2025 has been Modi’s most difficult foreign-policy year.
Japan’s New Prime Minister Is Already Facing Her First Crisis
Sanae Takaichi may be relishing confrontation with China.
The United States Is Moving Through the Stages of Grief Over China’s Rise
The Trump-Xi agreement may be a sign the U.S. position is shifting.
Iraq’s Elections Promise More Politicking Than Change
Perceptions of Washington’s indifference can perpetuate a risky status quo.
ASEAN Is No Longer Just a Talk Shop
The bloc is beginning to have some agency—as long as you don’t mention China.
How Solar Energy Could Transform Geopolitics
Environmentalist Bill McKibben on the incredible growth of clean energy in 2025.
The U.N.’s Latest Haiti Mandate Is a Rebrand, Not a Rethink
The Gang Suppression Force repackages the same strategies that have failed the country for decades.
Documenting War Crimes in Sudan Begins Now
Stopping ongoing violence in conflict zones is urgent, but with today’s technology, so is gathering evidence.
Nigeria Is Turning Into a U.S.-China Battleground
Trump’s threats leave Nigerians worried about superpower intentions.
China Is Worried About AI Job Losses
Beijing values domestic stability over global competition.
South Africa Gets a Pass on Rampant Corruption
Why is a leading global watchdog turning a blind eye?
Can South Korea Afford the Many Costs of Nuclear-Powered Submarines?
A Trumpian promise may be hard to deliver.
The Good News on Women’s Rights
How some countries are quietly advancing progress.
Putin’s Unlikely Envoy to Washington
Kirill Dmitriev is a prominent purveyor of the Kremlin’s line—but real power may lie elsewhere.
How One Vaccine Could Help Fight Drug-Resistant Infections
A cheap and practical intervention, given at birth, could save lives in conflict zones and beyond.
Europe Is Selling Ukraine a Pipe Dream
The EU’s promises of future membership have a very uncertain outcome.
An Unusual Election in Iraq Offers the U.S. an Unusual Opportunity
Baghdad is turning away from Tehran. Can Washington capitalize on it?
‘Good Enough’ Drones Have Become Geopolitical Chips
In Sudan and elsewhere, regional powers have used the weapons for leverage.
Has China’s Power Peaked in Asia?
Beijing finds itself in a precarious geopolitical position.
A Power-Hungry Southeast Asia Wants China’s Energy
Renewables are in hot demand in a growing region.
American Automakers Need Chinese Batteries
High political walls are hurting an industry vital to the character of the country.
The Forever Protectorate
Thirty years after Dayton, Bosnia is still overseen by a foreigner who has become a source of political instability.
Making Sense of the World Energy Outlook
The energy transition is not inevitable—but neither is business as usual.
The Voice of Venezuela’s Opposition
María Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize—but the fight for democracy is far from over.
How Venezuela Fits Into Trump’s Strategy for Latin America
And how the region is navigating a changed United States.
Brazil Tries to Keep Climate Cooperation Alive
At COP30, the global energy transition is moving forward without the United States.
The U.S. President Should Practice for a Nuclear Crisis
The commander in chief gets almost no preparation for the ultimate decision. That needs to change.
Putin Will Never Compromise on Ukraine
Russia’s president is too committed to his own fantasies to ever accept Ukraine’s independence.
Trump’s Tariffs Threaten the End of Neutrality
Now even Switzerland can’t escape great-power politics.
How China Became a Solar Power
Beijing’s green energy ambitions are fueling a global revolution.
The Nostalgic Delusion of 1989
The U.S. military buildup around Venezuela has drawn comparisons to past regime change in Panama. But Washington cannot invade its way to democracy in Caracas.
This Is the Future of U.S. Foreign Aid Under Trump
Post-USAID assistance may depend on a country’s strategic value to Washington.
Will Israel Wreck the U.S.-Syria Romance?
By embracing Sharaa, Trump hopes to bring Syria into the U.S. order.
Millennial Leaders Won the Dutch Elections
A quiet generational shift is transforming politics.
China Is Already Pulling Ahead on the Next Energy Supply Chain
Low-emission hydrogen is quickly becoming the latest frontier for geoeconomic competition.
AI’s Rapacious Appetite for Electricity Can Accelerate Clean Energy
Why Big Tech’s energy problem might prove crucial to fighting climate change.
How Beijing Views Trump
A top China scholar and former Biden administration advisor on the Trump-Xi meeting and the future of the U.S.-China relationship.
Add This to the Canon of Great Diplomacy Books
A. Wess Mitchell’s tour through two millennia of diplomacy is catnip for foreign-policy wonks.
Will Trump’s Critical Minerals Blitz Pay Off?
The U.S. president has been on a mission to secure new supply chains—and counter China’s grip.
Economics Is Europe’s Tool for Everything
Why the bloc always seeks economic solutions to its political problems.
What Trump and Xi Did—and Didn’t—Agree to
From soybeans to semiconductors, here’s everything you need to know about what came out of the meeting.
Trump’s Vagueness Over Nuclear Testing Could Fuel an Arms Race
It’s unclear whether his statement refers to warhead detonations.
Trump and Xi Step Back From the Brink—for Now
The United States and China have struck a vague and reversible deal.
How to Get More U.S. Weapons to Ukraine
Opening Europe’s 150 billion euro defense fund to U.S. companies could seal the deal.
Will Belém Kill Paris?
COP30 in Brazil tests the 2015 climate accord at a pivotal moment.
Milei’s Midterm Miracle
Did Argentine voters endorse their president’s economic overhaul—or cow to Trump’s threats?
Why Putin’s Energy Weapon Failed
New measures from the United States and European Union confirm why Russian energy exports were always a double-edged sword.
U.S. Government Shutdown Sorely Tests National Security State
One month into federal funding shortfall, U.S. defense and diplomacy resources are being stretched.
U.S. Gunboat Diplomacy Will Only Embolden China
Trump’s aggression in Latin America has given a powerful boost to Beijing in the Pacific.
Is the AI Economy a Bubble?
Economist Jared Bernstein warns that revenues simply aren’t catching up with sky-high valuations.
We’ve Forgotten What ‘Soft Power’ Is
Internationalists are mourning the loss of soft power. Do they even know what that means anymore?
The Countries Courting Trump With Critical Minerals
From Japan to Pakistan, the deals keep coming.
The Lessons of ‘A House of Dynamite’
Kathryn Bigelow’s latest movie offers insights for an increasingly dangerous world.
Democratic Peace Theory, R.I.P.
The rise, and potential fall, of a mainstay academic theory.
How Trump Can Avoid ‘Owning’ Gaza
Expanding U.S. strategic ambiguity with both Israel and the Gulf states is the best bet for regional progress.
Why Rare Earths Are About to Cost a Lot More
Contrary to Trump’s claim, diversifying the supply chain won’t drive down prices.
How to Make AI More Useful
The obsession with powerful large language models overlooks the developing world.
Is the U.S. Ready for War With China?
U.S. military planners are caught in an impossible dilemma.
Plush Power
How Labubu dolls became China’s first contemporary cultural export.
Indian Farmers Struggle as Climate Change Warps Landscape
Once-thriving crops are poorly adapting to new temperatures.
Xi May Have Miscalculated on Rare Earths
China’s complex new rules take on the entire world at once—and give Trump an opportunity.
For Its 80th Birthday, the U.N. Needs More Than a Reset
Going back to first principles has until recently spooked many diplomats.
Will Trump’s Russia Oil Sanctions Finally Sway Putin?
The threat to Moscow’s oil earnings is huge. But will it be enough?
Pakistan’s Year of Diplomatic Miracles
Islamabad has pulled off repeated coups—but can they last?
How to Fight Putin on the Information Battlefield
The West can’t fully adopt Russia’s methods—but it should study them.
Nobody Is Sure How Bolivia’s New President Will Govern
Latin America’s right has welcomed centrist Sen. Rodrigo Paz’s victory.
Why Trump Is a ‘Scarcity President’
Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Greg Grandin on the end of the American myth of limitlessness.
Trump Faces MAGA Backlash for Argentina Bailout
Billions for Buenos Aires, and support for Argentine farmers, is not sitting well in the U.S. heartland.
Drawing a Line in the Sky
How to build NATO unity and capability in the face of Russian airspace violations.
The Risk of a New Ethiopian-Eritrean War Is Growing
Changing dynamics in Tigray could erode the current balance of uncertainty.
The Countries Courting Trump With Critical Minerals
Australia becomes the latest country to sign a deal with the U.S. president.
Canada Shows How to Neutralize Trump’s Trade Attacks
Ottawa’s latest reforms are a blueprint for Washington’s victims around the world.
The Road Ahead for Palestine
Former negotiator Diana Buttu on the need for accountability—from Israelis and Palestinians alike.